***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 05.10.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 16.10.2017.-22.10.2017. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 27 73 100 18.9 25.6 17.7 168.2 80.8 62.3 3.6 8.0 14.6 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 28 72 100 15.1 21.0 16.0 168.2 80.8 62.3 2.5 6.0 11.6 30 Becej 27400G00 0 29 71 100 16.7 22.7 17.1 164.5 80.3 61.3 3.3 7.2 13.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 31 69 100 16.6 20.2 18.7 148.4 77.2 57.8 2.9 6.9 13.0 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 27 73 100 14.4 17.7 18.6 157.2 78.9 59.3 3.5 6.8 11.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 33 67 100 11.8 14.9 19.4 150.0 77.5 60.1 2.3 5.1 9.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 26 74 100 13.9 17.6 15.7 159.1 79.2 60.8 2.6 5.8 10.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 56 44 0 100 5.3 22.5 19.8 152.1 77.8 57.7 5.2 9.6 15.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 27 73 100 14.3 17.9 18.4 162.6 79.9 60.3 4.0 7.2 11.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 31 69 100 17.5 21.5 19.1 151.9 77.8 57.1 4.2 8.3 14.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 28 72 100 15.5 18.4 19.1 150.9 77.7 57.9 3.8 7.4 12.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 33 67 100 13.4 17.6 19.4 158.1 79.1 59.3 3.3 6.5 11.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 33 67 100 13.5 17.6 19.7 156.9 78.8 56.4 3.0 6.2 11.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 36 64 100 25.0 35.2 21.1 165.0 80.4 61.0 6.1 12.3 21.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 34 66 100 15.3 19.4 18.2 148.8 77.1 58.6 2.1 5.8 11.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 31 69 100 13.2 16.7 19.7 159.2 79.2 59.5 3.5 6.7 11.0 30 Nis 06700G01 0 30 70 100 12.9 17.1 15.7 158.9 79.1 61.1 2.0 5.0 9.9 30 Palic 37000G16 0 33 67 100 16.1 20.4 20.3 154.4 78.4 59.5 4.1 8.0 13.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 31 69 100 20.9 30.3 16.4 172.5 81.7 62.7 4.0 9.0 16.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 53 47 0 100 4.9 20.4 22.2 133.4 73.4 56.3 4.3 8.9 15.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 26 74 100 16.3 21.4 18.1 165.4 80.4 61.2 3.3 6.9 12.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 33 67 100 15.3 21.7 16.5 166.1 80.5 62.4 2.9 6.6 12.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 34 66 100 19.1 28.4 17.3 171.5 81.8 62.1 4.1 8.7 15.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 33 67 100 21.4 29.4 19.7 162.9 80.0 61.1 4.3 9.5 17.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 29 71 100 16.7 23.0 20.4 166.7 80.6 60.8 3.1 7.1 13.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 36 64 100 12.3 16.7 21.2 158.7 79.1 60.1 2.7 5.7 10.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 28 72 100 16.1 22.0 19.2 167.8 80.8 62.0 3.2 7.0 12.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 33 67 100 13.7 16.2 17.6 143.5 76.2 57.4 2.9 6.2 11.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 35 65 100 22.4 26.6 21.3 144.0 76.1 58.2 5.7 11.2 19.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 26 74 100 18.3 24.7 16.3 168.9 81.0 62.6 3.5 7.7 14.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------