***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 05.10.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 09.10.2017.-15.10.2017. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 77 23 100 19.6 19.0 17.7 0.0 49.3 49.7 17.6 19.0 20.4 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 77 23 100 19.9 19.1 17.8 -0.2 47.7 48.2 17.9 19.3 20.7 30 Becej 27400G00 0 80 20 100 19.9 19.4 18.1 0.0 50.4 50.5 18.0 19.4 20.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 80 20 100 12.8 13.2 15.2 0.9 61.6 59.4 11.0 12.3 13.6 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 77 23 100 20.0 19.5 16.1 0.0 49.9 50.2 18.1 19.5 20.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 77 23 100 19.5 18.3 13.9 -0.7 41.6 43.4 17.6 19.0 20.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 77 23 100 19.5 18.5 17.5 -0.4 44.5 45.6 17.5 18.9 20.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 80 20 100 10.5 9.7 14.4 -0.4 45.5 46.2 8.8 10.1 11.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 78 22 100 20.0 19.8 17.4 0.3 54.3 53.8 18.1 19.5 20.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 79 21 100 19.6 19.1 15.6 -0.1 49.6 49.8 17.7 19.1 20.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 79 21 100 20.1 19.5 16.6 0.0 49.7 50.0 18.2 19.6 20.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 80 20 100 19.5 18.9 15.3 -0.2 47.7 48.3 17.7 19.1 20.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 78 22 100 20.3 19.1 15.8 -0.7 41.1 42.9 18.5 19.8 21.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 81 19 100 20.3 19.9 17.4 0.1 50.7 50.9 18.3 19.8 21.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 79 21 100 19.3 19.7 17.6 0.9 62.7 60.3 17.7 18.9 20.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 78 22 100 20.8 20.0 15.8 -0.3 46.5 47.3 18.9 20.2 21.5 30 Nis 06700G01 0 76 24 100 19.3 18.2 17.1 -0.5 43.4 44.4 17.3 18.7 20.1 30 Palic 37000G16 0 78 22 100 18.9 18.0 14.8 -0.4 45.7 46.3 17.0 18.3 19.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 79 21 100 19.7 19.3 18.2 0.1 51.1 51.0 17.8 19.2 20.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 52 48 0 100 14.1 14.6 12.4 -1.2 36.1 37.8 14.3 15.6 16.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 79 21 100 19.8 19.3 17.8 0.0 50.2 50.4 17.9 19.3 20.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 76 24 100 20.1 18.9 17.4 -0.5 43.4 44.4 18.0 19.5 20.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 81 19 100 20.0 20.1 18.6 0.5 56.8 55.8 18.2 19.5 20.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 80 20 100 20.0 19.5 17.1 0.0 49.9 50.2 18.0 19.5 20.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 76 24 100 19.3 18.6 16.5 -0.1 48.0 48.6 17.6 18.8 19.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 76 24 100 20.1 18.9 14.3 -0.8 39.8 41.4 18.4 19.6 20.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 51 49 0 100 17.6 18.8 16.9 -0.3 45.4 46.5 17.8 19.1 20.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 79 21 100 19.4 19.8 16.3 0.9 61.7 59.6 17.6 18.9 20.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 76 24 100 15.1 13.8 14.0 -0.8 41.3 42.4 13.2 14.5 15.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 78 22 100 19.5 18.9 17.9 -0.1 48.6 49.0 17.7 19.0 20.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------