***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 04.10.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 08.10.2012.-14.10.2012. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 79 21 100 9999.0 3.2 10.3 77.7 56.6 47.5 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 80 20 100 9.2 9.5 10.5 83.4 58.7 48.8 3.4 6.9 12.1 30 Becej 27400G00 0 78 22 100 11.2 9.9 10.4 76.2 55.5 46.4 3.6 7.9 14.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 79 21 100 14.0 10.5 9.0 62.7 50.0 42.6 5.3 10.5 17.9 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 79 21 100 10.2 7.7 9.5 61.4 50.1 43.7 3.8 7.6 13.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 77 23 100 13.1 11.9 10.2 77.4 55.8 45.7 5.0 9.7 16.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 77 23 100 8.2 8.1 10.7 83.9 58.6 48.1 2.6 5.7 10.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 79 21 100 17.3 13.4 10.6 63.5 49.3 43.3 7.7 13.6 21.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 80 20 100 10.9 7.8 9.6 62.1 49.5 43.3 3.6 8.0 14.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 79 21 100 11.8 8.3 10.9 64.7 49.5 43.5 3.9 8.4 15.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 81 19 100 9.1 6.8 9.2 61.5 50.3 43.6 3.2 6.8 12.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 80 20 100 9.8 6.6 9.0 60.2 49.1 42.4 3.0 6.9 13.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 79 21 100 12.0 9.3 9.8 65.5 51.3 43.3 4.4 8.9 15.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 81 19 100 13.5 12.5 13.0 83.4 56.1 47.0 4.1 9.7 18.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 77 23 100 8.9 5.5 7.4 53.3 46.8 38.8 2.8 6.2 11.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 80 20 100 9.0 6.3 9.0 62.0 49.9 42.5 2.8 6.3 12.1 30 Nis 06700G01 0 77 23 100 6.3 6.9 11.0 90.4 61.4 51.5 2.1 4.4 8.1 30 Palic 37000G16 0 77 23 100 14.1 10.5 12.6 71.7 51.4 44.8 4.6 10.0 18.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 80 20 100 9.9 9.8 10.7 83.4 58.2 48.3 3.0 7.0 13.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 78 22 100 13.1 10.6 14.4 72.8 52.1 46.2 5.1 9.8 16.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 79 21 100 11.8 9.6 9.6 67.0 52.4 45.1 4.1 8.7 15.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 78 22 100 8.4 10.3 12.3 101.8 64.7 54.6 2.8 6.1 10.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 79 21 100 9.4 9.0 11.1 83.6 57.6 47.6 2.7 6.4 12.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 77 23 100 13.3 10.4 11.8 75.4 53.2 45.3 3.8 9.0 17.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 77 23 100 11.8 9.8 10.3 71.6 53.8 45.8 4.0 8.5 15.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 79 21 100 12.6 9.9 9.9 62.0 50.1 43.3 5.5 9.9 15.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 77 23 100 10.2 9.1 10.7 77.4 56.3 47.5 3.4 7.3 13.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 78 22 100 7.5 5.1 8.1 58.1 48.5 40.9 2.5 5.4 9.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 78 22 100 18.1 15.1 13.6 75.7 53.4 46.6 6.8 13.4 23.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 79 21 100 8.7 8.4 10.5 81.1 57.8 47.6 2.9 6.3 11.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------