***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 04.10.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 29.10.2012.-04.11.2012. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 37 63 100 9999.0 15.3 14.5 1.1 62.5 60.5 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 78 22 100 14.8 15.4 14.3 1.2 63.4 60.6 12.5 14.1 15.7 30 Becej 27400G00 0 79 21 100 15.7 16.5 14.7 1.2 62.6 60.5 13.0 15.0 16.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 79 21 100 9.5 9.9 12.7 0.9 60.0 59.3 6.6 8.7 10.7 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 79 21 100 15.6 16.0 13.2 1.0 59.9 58.8 13.0 14.9 16.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 79 21 100 15.3 15.7 12.2 1.0 59.8 58.5 12.6 14.6 16.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 39 61 100 15.6 15.1 14.2 1.1 63.1 60.4 12.2 13.8 15.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 80 20 100 8.0 8.2 12.1 0.8 57.5 56.5 5.8 7.4 9.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 80 20 100 15.8 16.3 13.7 1.1 60.4 59.0 13.2 15.1 17.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 80 20 100 15.5 15.8 12.8 0.9 58.6 57.3 12.8 14.8 16.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 79 21 100 15.9 16.3 13.1 1.0 59.9 58.5 13.1 15.1 17.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 80 20 100 15.6 16.0 12.8 0.9 58.9 57.6 12.8 14.9 16.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 79 21 100 16.0 16.3 12.6 1.0 59.3 58.0 13.2 15.2 17.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 80 20 100 15.9 16.4 13.7 1.0 60.0 58.0 12.9 15.1 17.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 39 61 100 15.3 14.7 12.8 1.0 61.4 60.7 12.2 13.7 15.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 79 21 100 16.6 17.0 12.9 1.0 59.9 58.6 13.9 15.9 17.8 30 Nis 06700G01 0 78 22 100 13.9 14.4 13.8 1.0 61.6 59.0 11.7 13.3 14.8 30 Palic 37000G16 0 80 20 100 14.5 14.7 12.3 0.8 57.2 56.0 11.8 13.8 15.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 80 20 100 15.0 15.8 14.6 1.2 63.7 60.9 12.5 14.3 16.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 79 21 100 13.0 12.7 10.2 0.4 54.1 53.5 10.3 12.3 14.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 40 60 100 17.0 16.2 14.2 1.1 61.1 59.6 13.0 15.0 16.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 81 19 100 14.7 15.2 14.0 1.0 61.3 58.8 12.3 14.1 15.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 81 19 100 15.0 15.9 14.7 1.3 63.5 60.7 12.6 14.4 16.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 80 20 100 16.0 16.5 13.7 1.0 60.0 58.2 13.2 15.3 17.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 38 62 100 15.8 15.1 13.1 1.0 61.0 59.7 12.2 13.9 15.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 80 20 100 15.5 15.7 12.3 0.8 58.1 57.4 13.1 14.9 16.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 37 63 100 16.8 16.0 13.8 1.1 61.9 60.1 12.9 14.7 16.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 79 21 100 14.9 15.3 12.9 1.0 60.5 59.7 12.5 14.2 15.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 80 20 100 12.0 11.9 11.4 0.6 55.6 54.6 9.0 11.2 13.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 79 21 100 14.7 15.4 14.5 1.2 63.5 60.9 12.4 14.1 15.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------