***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 04.10.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 08.10.2012.-14.10.2012. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 54 46 0 100 9999.0 7.3 9.5 -1.0 34.2 36.5 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 63 37 0 100 6.3 6.6 9.0 -1.2 29.9 33.1 6.8 8.0 9.1 30 Becej 27400G00 56 44 0 100 8.8 9.4 9.7 -0.7 38.3 40.2 9.0 10.1 11.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 77 23 100 6.0 5.0 7.7 -0.5 40.8 42.8 4.5 5.5 6.5 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 77 23 100 7.7 6.9 8.2 -0.3 44.2 45.6 6.1 7.3 8.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 76 24 100 7.0 6.3 6.3 -0.3 43.1 44.2 5.7 6.6 7.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 59 41 0 100 6.6 7.0 9.2 -1.0 33.1 35.5 7.0 8.1 9.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 52 48 0 100 1.6 2.3 6.6 -0.3 43.5 44.8 1.7 2.7 3.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 76 24 100 8.7 8.1 8.8 -0.1 47.8 48.3 7.2 8.2 9.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 53 47 0 100 6.9 7.7 7.3 -0.3 43.9 45.2 7.0 8.0 8.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 76 24 100 7.9 7.2 7.8 -0.3 43.7 45.3 6.6 7.5 8.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 51 49 0 100 5.6 6.3 7.2 -0.3 45.0 45.8 5.7 6.6 7.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 76 24 100 7.5 6.9 7.2 -0.2 46.3 46.7 6.1 7.1 8.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 57 43 0 100 7.2 8.0 8.6 -0.5 40.9 42.6 7.5 8.5 9.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 78 22 100 8.7 8.3 9.2 -0.1 47.6 48.0 7.7 8.4 9.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 76 24 100 8.8 8.2 7.6 -0.2 46.1 47.0 7.4 8.4 9.3 30 Nis 06700G01 62 38 0 100 6.9 7.1 8.7 -1.3 29.4 32.6 7.3 8.3 9.2 30 Palic 37000G16 57 43 0 100 5.8 6.5 6.5 -0.5 40.3 42.3 6.1 7.0 7.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 57 43 0 100 6.7 7.1 9.3 -1.0 33.7 36.3 7.0 8.1 9.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 56 44 0 100 2.1 2.7 4.7 -0.6 38.7 40.7 2.4 3.4 4.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 53 47 0 100 6.1 7.0 9.5 -0.5 41.8 43.3 6.3 7.5 8.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 61 39 0 100 5.9 6.3 9.1 -1.0 32.3 35.1 6.3 7.3 8.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 75 25 100 8.1 7.2 9.7 -0.4 42.0 43.2 6.7 7.7 8.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 57 43 0 100 6.3 7.1 8.4 -0.5 41.5 43.2 6.6 7.6 8.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 57 43 0 100 6.6 7.1 8.7 -0.9 34.6 37.0 7.0 8.2 9.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 76 24 100 7.8 7.0 6.7 -0.5 41.3 42.6 6.6 7.5 8.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 56 44 0 100 6.1 6.6 8.9 -1.0 33.5 35.8 6.5 8.1 9.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 78 22 100 7.1 6.6 8.4 -0.2 46.9 47.7 5.9 6.8 7.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 54 46 0 100 5.0 5.7 6.0 -0.4 41.6 43.1 5.2 6.2 7.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 59 41 0 100 6.7 7.1 9.5 -1.0 33.7 36.1 7.1 8.3 9.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------