***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 03.10.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 14.10.2019.-20.10.2019. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 56 44 0 100 3.4 8.1 9.7 85.1 59.1 44.5 3.4 6.1 10.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 77 23 100 7.1 7.7 9.6 88.2 60.9 49.1 2.6 5.2 9.1 30 Becej 27400G00 0 77 23 100 7.2 7.8 10.5 90.9 61.4 47.9 2.5 5.1 9.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 54 46 0 100 3.2 11.1 13.2 97.3 64.6 49.5 2.7 6.2 11.8 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 53 47 0 100 3.1 9.6 12.3 96.9 64.1 48.2 2.7 5.7 10.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 57 43 0 100 2.9 10.2 13.6 113.2 68.2 51.8 2.8 5.5 9.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 76 24 100 7.3 7.9 9.7 90.6 61.6 49.0 2.7 5.3 9.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 56 44 0 100 4.7 13.7 13.4 101.9 65.3 47.6 4.5 8.5 14.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 51 49 0 100 3.7 10.5 12.0 100.7 65.2 49.0 3.2 6.3 10.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 52 48 0 100 4.7 14.2 13.5 105.4 66.4 49.2 4.2 8.2 14.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 75 25 100 9.8 11.8 13.1 103.4 65.7 50.1 3.7 7.1 12.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 54 46 0 100 3.1 9.8 12.7 103.4 65.9 48.7 2.8 5.6 9.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 65 35 0 100 2.7 8.6 11.4 91.5 61.6 42.9 2.8 5.8 10.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 51 49 0 100 5.6 16.4 15.1 109.3 67.5 51.4 5.0 9.5 15.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 76 24 100 7.3 10.7 14.5 111.9 69.3 51.8 1.8 4.8 9.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 56 44 0 100 3.2 8.9 12.0 98.8 64.1 47.7 3.1 5.7 9.4 30 Nis 06700G01 55 45 0 100 2.6 8.0 10.6 98.1 64.3 51.4 2.4 4.8 8.5 30 Palic 37000G16 0 75 25 100 10.0 12.9 14.2 109.4 67.4 50.3 3.7 7.3 12.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 78 22 100 8.7 9.7 10.2 91.9 62.1 50.0 3.2 6.4 11.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 53 47 0 100 4.0 12.2 15.9 99.4 63.7 47.9 3.4 7.4 13.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 52 48 0 100 3.0 8.3 11.1 94.7 63.0 49.3 2.6 5.3 9.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 56 44 0 100 3.0 9.4 11.7 101.6 65.5 51.6 2.8 5.5 9.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 77 23 100 8.6 10.3 11.7 100.2 64.7 51.3 3.3 6.4 10.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 75 25 100 10.1 13.2 13.7 108.7 67.2 51.4 3.1 6.9 12.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 53 47 0 100 2.9 7.4 11.5 87.8 59.7 45.3 2.6 5.3 9.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 75 25 100 8.9 10.9 14.5 103.6 65.8 50.3 3.1 6.3 10.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 53 47 0 100 3.2 8.1 10.4 87.8 59.9 45.2 2.9 5.7 9.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 53 47 0 100 3.2 9.5 12.6 99.8 65.5 49.1 2.9 5.7 9.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 76 24 100 14.1 18.5 15.5 111.6 67.8 51.4 5.3 10.4 17.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 79 21 100 7.5 8.2 9.7 87.7 60.9 48.5 3.0 5.8 9.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------