***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 02.10.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 13.10.2014.-19.10.2014. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 29 71 100 19.6 19.4 18.4 1.5 68.4 65.0 15.8 17.5 19.1 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 30 70 100 19.6 19.5 18.4 1.6 69.3 65.8 16.1 17.7 19.2 30 Becej 27400G00 0 25 75 100 20.1 20.0 18.7 1.8 71.1 67.0 16.2 17.9 19.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 32 68 100 12.9 12.7 16.4 1.5 68.3 64.5 9.1 10.8 12.5 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 28 72 100 20.1 20.0 17.1 1.8 70.9 66.6 16.2 17.9 19.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 27 73 100 19.7 19.7 16.0 1.8 71.0 66.9 15.4 17.3 19.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 31 69 100 19.3 19.0 18.2 1.4 67.4 64.6 15.7 17.3 18.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 24 76 100 11.4 11.6 16.5 2.1 73.8 69.5 6.9 8.8 10.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 28 72 100 20.1 20.2 17.8 1.9 72.0 67.6 16.1 17.9 19.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 25 75 100 19.8 20.0 17.1 2.1 73.5 69.1 15.8 17.5 19.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 28 72 100 20.0 20.1 17.0 1.9 71.8 67.5 16.0 17.8 19.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 25 75 100 19.7 19.7 17.0 1.9 72.0 68.1 15.6 17.4 19.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 23 77 100 20.5 20.2 16.6 1.7 69.8 66.6 16.3 18.1 19.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 25 75 100 20.6 21.0 18.3 2.4 75.8 70.7 16.6 18.3 19.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 34 66 100 18.6 18.2 16.2 1.3 65.9 62.7 15.5 16.9 18.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 27 73 100 20.9 20.7 16.7 1.7 70.3 66.4 16.8 18.6 20.2 30 Nis 06700G01 0 32 68 100 19.1 19.0 18.2 1.6 69.7 66.2 15.6 17.2 18.7 30 Palic 37000G16 0 24 76 100 19.2 19.5 17.0 2.3 75.0 70.5 15.4 17.0 18.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 28 72 100 19.6 19.6 18.7 1.8 71.4 67.3 15.9 17.5 19.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 22 78 100 16.9 17.2 15.2 2.3 75.3 71.0 12.3 14.2 16.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 28 72 100 19.9 19.9 18.2 1.8 70.7 66.5 16.1 17.8 19.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 29 71 100 19.8 20.0 18.5 1.9 72.6 68.2 16.2 17.8 19.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 27 73 100 19.9 20.2 18.9 2.1 73.9 69.1 16.3 17.9 19.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 24 76 100 20.5 20.8 18.1 2.3 74.7 69.9 16.3 18.1 19.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 28 72 100 19.2 19.0 17.0 1.5 68.7 65.0 15.8 17.3 18.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 23 77 100 20.0 19.6 16.4 1.5 69.1 66.2 16.0 17.7 19.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 29 71 100 19.8 19.5 17.7 1.5 68.4 65.0 16.0 17.7 19.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 33 67 100 19.4 19.2 16.5 1.5 67.7 63.9 15.8 17.5 19.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 23 77 100 15.8 16.2 16.3 2.4 75.5 71.1 11.4 13.2 15.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 28 72 100 19.5 19.2 18.5 1.6 68.9 65.5 15.9 17.5 18.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------