***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 01.10.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 26.10.2020.-01.11.2020. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 76 24 100 15.8 15.8 15.2 0.7 57.4 55.0 13.1 15.0 16.8 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 52 48 0 100 12.8 15.4 15.1 0.7 56.8 54.7 13.1 14.7 16.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 75 25 100 16.3 16.2 15.5 0.7 56.5 54.5 13.6 15.5 17.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 76 24 100 9.9 10.5 13.3 1.1 61.5 58.1 6.7 9.0 11.1 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 76 24 100 16.2 16.3 14.1 0.8 58.1 55.7 13.6 15.5 17.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 54 46 0 100 12.4 15.9 13.3 1.1 60.4 57.4 12.8 14.8 16.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 51 49 0 100 12.5 15.1 15.0 0.7 57.2 54.9 12.7 14.4 16.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 51 49 0 100 5.5 7.9 13.3 0.7 56.5 54.9 5.7 7.3 8.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 77 23 100 16.4 16.4 14.6 0.8 57.5 55.2 13.8 15.6 17.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 76 24 100 16.1 16.1 13.9 0.8 57.3 55.3 13.5 15.3 17.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 76 24 100 16.5 16.4 14.2 0.7 57.1 55.0 13.7 15.6 17.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 51 49 0 100 12.9 15.8 13.9 0.6 55.7 54.2 13.2 15.1 17.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 52 48 0 100 13.4 16.2 13.4 0.6 55.7 54.4 13.7 15.6 17.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 75 25 100 16.7 16.4 14.5 0.5 55.1 53.5 13.7 15.8 17.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 77 23 100 15.0 15.6 13.9 1.2 62.9 59.2 12.8 14.4 15.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 52 48 0 100 14.1 17.1 13.9 0.8 57.6 55.4 14.4 16.3 18.0 30 Nis 06700G01 53 47 0 100 12.0 14.7 14.9 0.8 58.4 55.8 12.3 13.9 15.4 30 Palic 37000G16 0 76 24 100 15.2 15.1 13.6 0.6 55.6 54.2 12.5 14.4 16.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 51 49 0 100 12.8 15.6 15.3 0.7 56.6 54.6 13.1 14.9 16.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 76 24 100 13.1 12.8 11.6 0.5 55.1 54.3 10.4 12.3 14.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 77 23 100 16.2 16.2 15.1 0.8 57.8 55.4 13.7 15.4 17.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 51 49 0 100 12.7 15.7 14.9 0.8 58.7 56.1 13.0 14.8 16.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 75 25 100 15.9 15.7 15.6 0.6 56.1 54.2 13.3 15.1 16.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 75 25 100 16.7 16.5 14.6 0.6 55.5 53.9 13.8 15.8 17.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 77 23 100 15.3 15.5 13.9 0.9 59.0 56.3 12.9 14.6 16.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 54 46 0 100 13.1 15.6 13.2 0.5 54.9 54.1 13.5 15.1 16.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 77 23 100 15.9 16.0 14.7 0.8 58.2 55.6 13.4 15.2 16.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 76 24 100 15.6 16.1 13.7 1.2 62.1 58.5 12.8 14.7 16.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 76 24 100 12.2 11.9 12.9 0.5 54.4 53.6 9.2 11.3 13.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 51 49 0 100 12.7 15.3 15.1 0.6 56.3 54.4 12.9 14.6 16.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------