***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 29.09.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 24.10.2016.-30.10.2016. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 57 43 0 100 12.4 15.2 15.3 0.1 51.0 51.5 13.0 15.1 17.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 56 44 0 100 12.6 15.5 15.5 0.4 55.1 54.1 13.1 15.0 16.7 30 Becej 27400G00 53 47 0 100 13.2 15.9 15.7 0.2 52.9 52.8 13.6 15.5 17.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 53 47 0 100 6.4 9.1 13.1 0.2 52.3 52.1 6.8 8.9 10.8 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 52 48 0 100 13.3 15.7 13.9 0.1 51.5 51.6 13.6 15.6 17.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 52 48 0 100 12.8 15.3 12.9 0.3 53.3 53.2 13.1 15.0 16.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 55 45 0 100 12.4 15.1 15.4 0.3 53.7 53.3 12.9 14.7 16.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 58 42 0 100 5.1 7.7 13.0 0.3 54.3 53.6 5.6 7.3 8.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 55 45 0 100 13.4 16.1 14.5 0.2 52.2 52.1 13.9 15.8 17.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 57 43 0 100 13.0 15.8 13.7 0.3 53.7 53.2 13.6 15.4 17.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 54 46 0 100 13.4 16.0 13.9 0.2 52.1 52.2 13.8 15.8 17.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 57 43 0 100 12.8 15.6 13.6 0.2 53.1 52.9 13.4 15.3 17.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 54 46 0 100 13.5 15.9 13.3 0.1 51.6 52.3 13.9 15.7 17.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 54 46 0 100 13.5 16.8 14.8 0.5 55.8 54.7 14.0 16.1 18.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 76 24 100 15.4 15.1 13.8 0.3 54.3 53.5 13.1 14.7 16.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 55 45 0 100 14.0 16.6 13.7 0.2 51.9 52.1 14.5 16.4 18.1 30 Nis 06700G01 53 47 0 100 12.3 15.0 15.4 0.4 56.4 55.1 12.6 14.4 16.0 30 Palic 37000G16 58 42 0 100 12.2 15.3 13.6 0.5 55.4 54.3 12.8 14.7 16.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 55 45 0 100 12.7 15.7 15.7 0.4 55.1 54.2 13.2 15.1 17.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 58 42 0 100 9.9 13.0 11.5 0.5 55.8 54.3 10.5 12.4 14.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 54 46 0 100 13.3 15.7 15.0 0.1 51.3 51.6 13.7 15.6 17.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 52 48 0 100 12.9 15.9 15.3 0.4 56.1 54.8 13.3 15.2 17.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 53 47 0 100 13.1 16.0 15.9 0.4 55.4 54.4 13.5 15.4 17.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 55 45 0 100 13.5 16.7 14.8 0.4 54.9 54.1 14.0 16.1 18.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 53 47 0 100 12.6 14.7 13.7 0.0 49.8 50.7 12.9 14.7 16.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 58 42 0 100 13.2 15.9 13.2 0.4 55.1 54.3 13.7 15.4 17.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 55 45 0 100 12.9 15.2 14.6 0.0 50.1 51.0 13.4 15.2 17.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 75 25 100 15.7 15.3 13.5 0.3 53.6 52.9 13.0 14.9 16.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 57 43 0 100 8.9 12.1 12.9 0.5 55.9 54.5 9.5 11.4 13.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 56 44 0 100 12.5 15.3 15.5 0.3 53.8 53.3 13.0 14.9 16.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------