***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 28.09.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 02.10.2017.-29.10.2017. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 51 49 0 100 19.5 35.2 45.5 93.8 55.3 48.9 18.7 30.7 46.2 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 78 22 100 37.0 38.2 44.9 100.9 59.4 52.8 18.2 30.1 45.1 30 Becej 27400G00 0 77 23 100 43.8 41.2 45.5 94.8 55.6 50.3 22.9 36.0 52.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 54 46 0 100 30.6 51.8 49.2 93.0 54.6 46.1 30.9 46.9 66.1 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 55 45 0 100 22.8 42.1 49.5 97.3 57.1 49.3 23.0 35.8 51.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 57 43 0 100 21.6 42.9 54.6 101.6 58.6 49.0 22.2 35.2 51.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 78 22 100 33.6 34.8 44.7 100.3 59.3 52.4 16.9 27.4 40.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 78 22 100 60.5 61.2 59.2 101.2 58.5 51.2 36.3 52.1 70.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 75 25 100 42.8 40.4 49.9 96.7 56.5 49.9 23.0 35.2 49.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 77 23 100 50.9 50.4 57.0 99.6 57.7 50.8 28.7 42.9 59.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 76 24 100 41.9 41.4 51.6 99.5 58.1 50.2 22.0 34.3 49.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 76 24 100 42.0 42.4 53.1 101.7 59.1 50.8 22.7 34.7 49.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 56 44 0 100 23.5 47.5 56.3 104.8 61.0 51.6 24.1 37.2 53.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 77 23 100 65.5 66.7 58.9 101.7 59.1 53.7 34.9 54.2 77.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 58 42 0 100 18.7 35.3 47.0 89.0 53.4 43.9 19.2 32.3 48.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 52 48 0 100 21.7 39.9 51.5 100.0 58.3 49.8 21.4 33.0 47.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 78 22 100 32.5 33.0 44.6 100.1 58.9 51.9 16.3 26.6 39.4 30 Palic 37000G16 0 77 23 100 52.2 52.4 60.6 101.3 58.4 51.9 30.0 44.2 61.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 78 22 100 45.9 47.0 45.6 100.4 59.0 52.8 23.7 37.9 55.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 77 23 100 56.3 57.1 72.0 102.2 58.9 52.5 32.8 47.8 65.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 53 47 0 100 22.9 40.2 46.5 93.9 54.9 48.5 22.7 35.8 52.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 79 21 100 40.9 42.6 47.7 101.6 59.5 53.2 22.7 34.6 49.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 77 23 100 47.8 47.2 46.8 98.8 57.7 52.2 24.9 39.2 57.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 77 23 100 53.9 52.9 54.2 99.0 57.4 51.9 28.2 44.2 64.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 54 46 0 100 20.5 38.8 49.3 93.2 54.9 47.0 20.1 33.9 51.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 53 47 0 100 26.7 47.6 54.8 101.8 59.1 50.4 26.7 39.6 54.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 54 46 0 100 19.2 34.9 47.8 94.4 55.6 48.7 19.2 30.4 44.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 56 44 0 100 20.3 36.4 48.1 94.3 55.7 46.3 20.9 32.1 45.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 77 23 100 67.9 69.3 64.7 102.5 59.1 52.6 37.7 56.9 80.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 78 22 100 38.0 38.7 45.1 99.4 58.7 52.4 19.4 31.1 46.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------