***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 27.09.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 01.10.2012.-28.10.2012. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 79 21 100 9999.0 30.8 43.7 102.5 60.6 53.2 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 79 21 100 35.4 32.9 42.6 93.6 54.9 50.0 17.0 28.7 43.7 30 Becej 27400G00 0 76 24 100 43.8 40.4 40.3 93.9 55.2 49.1 22.9 35.9 51.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 76 24 100 57.7 58.2 45.4 98.4 59.0 50.5 32.7 48.5 67.1 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 53 47 0 100 25.2 42.3 42.5 95.4 56.3 48.3 25.2 37.3 51.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 78 22 100 43.1 37.9 46.9 88.4 52.6 46.8 22.9 35.9 51.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 80 20 100 32.6 32.9 44.6 98.7 57.9 52.7 15.8 26.7 40.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 52 48 0 100 38.7 54.2 42.7 86.6 50.2 44.5 39.3 53.8 70.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 56 44 0 100 23.8 40.1 41.0 94.1 55.0 47.0 24.7 36.2 50.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 54 46 0 100 30.6 46.0 43.5 90.1 51.8 45.4 31.3 44.4 59.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 54 46 0 100 23.0 38.1 38.4 89.8 53.5 46.4 23.2 35.2 49.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 54 46 0 100 23.6 36.3 36.2 84.2 50.5 44.3 23.9 35.7 50.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 77 23 100 45.6 39.2 41.2 84.8 50.8 45.2 26.0 38.5 53.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 53 47 0 100 36.9 53.2 45.9 86.6 48.0 44.6 37.1 55.3 77.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 77 23 100 41.1 41.4 45.2 96.9 58.8 49.7 20.5 33.3 49.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 52 48 0 100 22.1 35.1 39.5 87.8 52.7 46.1 21.7 33.2 46.8 30 Nis 06700G01 0 80 20 100 30.5 28.1 43.5 93.0 54.7 49.5 14.5 24.7 38.1 30 Palic 37000G16 52 48 0 100 30.3 43.5 48.6 89.1 49.4 43.9 30.2 44.1 60.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 78 22 100 44.4 39.2 41.1 90.7 52.9 48.4 22.9 36.5 53.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 76 24 100 56.8 50.1 62.1 90.8 51.2 45.7 34.8 48.9 65.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 53 47 0 100 24.8 43.9 40.9 98.3 57.9 49.3 24.8 37.2 52.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 77 23 100 40.7 34.6 43.0 87.8 51.2 46.6 22.0 33.8 48.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 76 24 100 47.1 38.7 40.4 87.9 50.6 46.8 23.9 38.2 55.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 52 48 0 100 29.4 43.6 43.2 87.5 48.8 43.8 29.0 44.9 64.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 51 49 0 100 21.9 46.2 48.6 104.5 61.6 52.8 20.9 34.3 51.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 77 23 100 46.6 41.3 41.0 85.4 52.1 45.9 27.4 39.8 54.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 78 22 100 35.6 39.6 49.0 105.9 62.3 54.5 17.9 29.2 43.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 77 23 100 39.9 39.2 42.9 94.3 57.3 48.9 22.4 33.5 47.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 54 46 0 100 44.1 60.3 52.9 87.9 48.4 43.4 45.1 62.0 81.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 78 22 100 37.0 35.5 42.5 95.7 56.4 51.2 18.8 30.2 44.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------