***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 27.09.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 22.10.2012.-28.10.2012. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 58 42 0 100 9999.0 5.0 9.6 92.0 63.4 45.1 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 56 44 0 100 2.7 6.5 8.5 74.7 57.3 42.9 2.5 5.1 8.7 30 Becej 27400G00 57 43 0 100 3.0 8.7 8.8 83.6 61.0 43.7 2.8 5.9 10.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 56 44 0 100 2.9 12.7 12.2 111.2 69.3 46.3 2.6 5.8 11.2 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 55 45 0 100 3.8 11.0 10.8 103.3 66.9 43.5 3.7 6.6 10.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 58 42 0 100 2.3 8.8 11.3 104.9 67.1 44.6 2.0 4.6 8.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 56 44 0 100 2.4 5.5 8.7 76.9 57.6 43.3 2.4 4.3 7.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 58 42 0 100 4.1 12.2 10.1 93.3 63.2 41.9 4.0 7.8 13.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 56 44 0 100 2.9 8.7 9.9 96.8 64.9 41.8 2.8 5.4 9.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 57 43 0 100 3.8 11.1 10.1 92.7 63.0 41.5 3.7 7.2 12.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 56 44 0 100 3.2 9.4 9.6 99.4 65.5 40.6 3.0 5.8 9.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 59 41 0 100 2.5 9.0 9.3 101.5 66.0 41.7 2.3 5.1 9.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 59 41 0 100 2.9 10.9 10.6 107.1 67.6 43.3 2.8 5.9 10.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 52 48 0 100 5.1 11.1 8.7 70.6 55.8 42.6 4.3 9.1 15.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 57 43 0 100 2.5 10.8 12.6 116.7 70.6 45.5 2.2 5.0 9.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 57 43 0 100 2.5 9.4 10.2 106.6 67.5 42.0 2.2 4.9 8.9 30 Nis 06700G01 53 47 0 100 2.8 6.4 8.4 73.4 56.4 44.0 2.4 5.0 8.9 30 Palic 37000G16 53 47 0 100 3.2 8.8 10.5 88.0 60.8 42.7 2.8 5.8 10.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 54 46 0 100 3.1 7.5 8.2 72.8 56.8 42.3 2.8 5.8 10.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 56 44 0 100 3.7 11.2 14.2 93.4 62.4 45.7 3.3 7.1 12.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 52 48 0 100 3.3 10.6 9.7 96.9 64.9 43.2 2.9 6.0 11.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 77 23 100 9.0 8.0 8.8 72.6 56.0 43.8 3.0 6.4 11.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 52 48 0 100 3.7 8.4 7.9 70.1 55.9 41.8 3.1 6.8 12.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 54 46 0 100 3.8 9.9 9.0 79.2 58.2 41.6 3.2 7.2 13.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 53 47 0 100 2.3 10.3 12.3 111.2 69.2 48.0 1.6 4.4 9.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 64 36 0 100 2.9 11.3 10.1 107.1 67.7 44.0 3.0 6.1 10.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 55 45 0 100 2.4 8.3 11.4 103.0 66.8 47.9 2.1 4.5 8.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 56 44 0 100 2.8 9.5 11.6 110.4 69.1 44.6 2.7 5.2 8.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 76 24 100 11.6 11.7 11.3 84.9 59.6 43.3 4.2 8.4 14.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 57 43 0 100 2.7 6.8 8.7 78.5 59.0 43.5 2.5 5.1 8.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------