***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 27.09.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 01.10.2012.-07.10.2012. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 0 100 100 9999.0 13.9 14.8 3.6 93.6 91.1 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 3 97 100 11.7 13.0 13.6 2.7 88.7 86.1 8.2 9.5 10.7 30 Becej 27400G00 0 0 100 100 13.4 15.3 14.6 3.6 94.5 92.5 10.6 11.6 12.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 0 100 100 9.1 11.4 12.8 3.7 94.5 93.2 5.7 6.9 8.1 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 0 100 100 10.9 13.6 13.2 3.8 95.2 94.0 7.3 8.6 9.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 0 100 100 10.0 13.3 11.6 4.3 97.0 96.2 6.3 7.7 8.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 2 98 100 11.4 12.6 13.8 2.9 89.1 86.6 8.5 9.6 10.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 0 100 100 5.7 8.0 11.4 3.8 95.9 94.7 2.7 3.8 4.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 0 100 100 11.8 14.5 13.7 4.0 96.7 95.6 8.7 9.8 10.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 0 100 100 11.1 13.6 12.2 3.9 96.0 94.8 8.1 9.2 10.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 0 100 100 10.9 13.6 12.7 3.9 95.8 94.8 7.4 8.7 9.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 0 100 100 9.6 12.3 12.2 4.0 96.3 95.4 6.4 7.6 8.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 0 100 100 10.4 13.4 12.3 4.3 96.5 95.6 6.9 8.2 9.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 0 100 100 11.4 13.1 13.2 3.5 94.0 92.2 8.7 9.7 10.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 0 100 100 11.7 14.7 14.3 4.2 96.9 95.9 8.5 9.6 10.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 0 100 100 11.7 14.5 12.6 4.1 96.3 95.4 8.4 9.6 10.7 30 Nis 06700G01 0 9 91 100 11.2 12.1 12.9 2.4 85.8 83.3 8.6 9.6 10.6 30 Palic 37000G16 0 0 100 100 10.1 12.4 11.2 3.6 94.9 93.7 6.8 8.0 9.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 2 98 100 11.4 12.8 13.9 3.0 91.0 88.6 8.4 9.5 10.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 0 100 100 6.6 8.8 9.2 3.5 94.3 93.0 3.2 4.5 5.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 0 100 100 11.3 13.7 14.5 3.8 95.3 93.8 8.0 9.2 10.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 9 91 100 10.4 11.4 13.1 2.4 86.4 84.0 7.7 8.7 9.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 0 100 100 11.1 13.3 14.3 3.6 95.1 93.3 8.0 9.1 10.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 0 100 100 10.7 12.6 13.0 3.6 95.0 93.6 8.0 9.0 9.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 0 100 100 12.1 14.6 14.0 3.7 94.5 92.7 8.5 9.8 11.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 0 100 100 10.4 12.5 11.9 4.0 94.7 93.2 7.2 8.4 9.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 0 100 100 12.7 15.2 14.2 3.6 93.3 91.2 8.6 10.1 11.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 0 100 100 10.2 12.9 13.4 4.0 95.7 94.7 6.6 7.9 9.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 0 100 100 9.2 11.2 10.4 3.6 95.2 93.9 6.5 7.5 8.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 2 98 100 11.9 13.5 14.2 3.1 91.2 88.7 8.7 9.9 11.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------