***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 26.09.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 30.09.2019.-06.10.2019. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 76 24 100 21.7 20.5 19.9 -0.8 40.9 41.6 19.9 21.1 22.3 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 64 36 0 100 20.0 20.3 19.2 -1.6 31.1 33.2 20.5 21.6 22.6 30 Becej 27400G00 57 43 0 100 20.0 20.7 19.9 -1.1 37.4 38.6 20.4 21.6 22.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 87 13 100 14.7 14.6 17.7 0.3 53.0 52.2 12.7 14.3 15.8 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 54 46 0 100 20.0 20.9 18.6 -0.8 41.2 41.8 20.2 21.6 22.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 81 19 100 21.2 20.7 17.6 -0.1 49.3 49.1 19.3 20.7 22.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 66 34 0 100 19.6 19.9 18.9 -1.7 29.8 32.1 20.1 21.2 22.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 51 49 0 100 9.7 10.7 17.2 -0.7 42.1 42.7 9.9 11.3 12.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 52 48 0 100 20.0 20.9 19.5 -0.7 41.9 42.4 20.2 21.5 22.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 76 24 100 21.8 20.8 18.1 -0.5 44.1 44.4 19.9 21.2 22.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 55 45 0 100 20.0 20.9 19.1 -0.9 39.9 40.7 20.3 21.6 22.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 52 48 0 100 19.4 20.2 18.0 -0.9 40.1 41.1 19.6 21.0 22.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 52 48 0 100 20.5 21.0 18.7 -1.2 37.2 38.6 20.7 22.0 23.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 57 43 0 100 20.6 21.4 19.1 -1.0 38.9 40.1 21.0 22.1 23.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 89 11 100 21.4 21.5 20.4 0.4 54.1 53.3 19.8 21.1 22.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 75 25 100 23.0 21.7 18.7 -0.9 40.3 41.2 21.1 22.4 23.7 30 Nis 06700G01 69 31 0 100 19.2 19.5 18.4 -1.8 28.6 30.8 19.8 20.8 21.8 30 Palic 37000G16 55 45 0 100 19.3 20.3 17.3 -0.7 42.1 42.8 19.6 20.9 22.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 63 37 0 100 19.7 20.1 19.4 -1.6 31.7 33.8 20.2 21.3 22.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 56 44 0 100 15.8 16.5 15.4 -1.0 38.2 39.8 16.1 17.4 18.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 55 45 0 100 19.9 20.8 20.0 -0.8 40.6 41.2 20.3 21.5 22.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 67 33 0 100 20.0 20.3 18.6 -1.7 29.7 31.9 20.5 21.6 22.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 62 38 0 100 20.1 20.5 19.5 -1.5 32.2 34.3 20.5 21.6 22.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 56 44 0 100 20.2 21.0 19.2 -0.8 40.5 41.4 20.5 21.7 22.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 78 22 100 21.4 20.4 18.9 -0.7 42.3 42.7 19.7 20.9 22.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 76 24 100 22.2 20.8 17.5 -1.0 38.9 40.2 20.3 21.7 22.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 76 24 100 21.8 20.6 19.3 -0.8 40.0 40.8 20.1 21.3 22.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 88 12 100 21.6 21.6 19.0 0.4 53.9 53.0 19.7 21.3 22.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 59 41 0 100 15.0 15.9 16.7 -0.9 39.7 40.9 15.4 16.7 17.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 60 40 0 100 19.8 20.2 19.4 -1.4 33.1 35.1 20.2 21.3 22.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------