***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 26.09.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 07.10.2013.-13.10.2013. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 72 28 0 100 9999.0 5.7 6.3 69.0 52.2 33.0 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 66 34 0 100 3.0 8.5 6.8 77.2 55.9 37.8 3.2 6.8 12.2 30 Becej 27400G00 66 34 0 100 3.4 9.0 6.3 71.6 52.9 35.7 3.6 8.0 14.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 78 22 0 100 3.8 7.5 4.6 45.1 41.3 25.7 5.3 10.3 17.3 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 66 34 0 100 3.2 6.8 5.9 60.7 48.7 32.8 3.6 7.3 12.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 67 33 0 100 4.0 7.0 6.7 52.4 43.2 30.7 4.4 9.1 16.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 63 37 0 100 2.8 7.6 7.0 77.1 55.9 37.6 2.9 6.0 10.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 61 39 0 100 7.2 15.6 7.7 74.5 54.7 36.1 7.7 13.6 21.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 69 31 0 100 3.1 7.5 6.0 63.8 49.3 32.2 3.6 7.6 13.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 63 37 0 100 3.4 8.2 7.0 68.5 51.4 35.1 3.3 7.8 14.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 67 33 0 100 2.7 6.6 5.7 63.1 50.8 33.2 2.9 6.4 11.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 68 32 0 100 3.0 7.9 5.9 66.1 51.9 32.7 3.3 7.3 13.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 66 34 0 100 4.0 8.2 6.5 59.7 47.4 33.4 4.3 9.1 16.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 62 38 0 100 4.1 10.0 8.0 72.6 51.7 38.8 4.1 9.3 18.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 69 31 0 100 2.4 4.3 4.7 46.0 42.5 28.7 2.7 5.9 10.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 65 35 0 100 2.9 6.3 5.8 58.9 48.2 33.0 3.0 6.9 12.8 30 Nis 06700G01 63 37 0 100 2.3 6.9 7.4 84.0 58.4 39.7 2.4 5.1 9.1 30 Palic 37000G16 59 41 0 100 4.6 10.1 8.5 72.2 51.4 38.1 4.4 9.6 17.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 64 36 0 100 3.3 9.0 6.6 74.7 54.6 37.6 3.4 7.5 13.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 57 43 0 100 5.7 13.7 12.4 85.2 57.6 41.4 5.5 10.6 17.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 71 29 0 100 3.6 9.1 5.8 64.9 50.9 31.3 4.4 8.8 15.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 62 38 0 100 2.7 7.3 6.9 76.1 54.8 38.0 2.7 5.9 11.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 61 39 0 100 3.1 7.6 6.4 71.4 52.8 37.7 2.9 6.7 12.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 58 42 0 100 3.9 8.7 7.5 71.6 51.7 38.5 3.3 8.2 15.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 72 28 0 100 3.1 8.3 6.8 66.6 50.9 33.5 4.0 8.1 14.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 69 31 0 100 3.9 8.5 6.2 58.0 48.6 30.7 4.6 8.9 14.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 72 28 0 100 2.3 6.2 6.8 66.0 50.0 32.5 2.8 6.2 11.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 73 27 0 100 2.0 3.6 4.5 44.6 41.4 26.7 2.5 5.3 9.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 59 41 0 100 6.5 14.4 9.8 75.0 52.8 39.0 6.2 13.0 22.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 66 34 0 100 2.9 7.5 6.5 72.7 53.6 36.0 3.3 6.6 11.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------