***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 25.09.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 06.10.2014.-12.10.2014. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 52 48 0 100 18.7 19.1 18.0 -1.1 34.7 41.4 18.9 20.3 21.7 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 76 24 100 21.1 19.4 18.0 -1.0 36.7 42.2 19.1 20.5 21.8 30 Becej 27400G00 0 76 24 100 21.3 19.5 18.2 -1.0 36.6 42.9 19.2 20.7 22.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 53 47 0 100 11.5 11.9 16.3 -1.2 33.7 39.7 11.8 13.6 15.2 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 51 49 0 100 18.9 19.5 16.8 -1.0 36.1 42.6 19.2 20.7 22.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 55 45 0 100 18.2 19.1 15.7 -1.0 37.7 42.9 18.6 20.2 21.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 51 49 0 100 18.6 19.0 17.9 -1.0 36.0 41.8 18.8 20.1 21.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 75 25 100 11.6 10.2 16.0 -0.8 39.9 46.0 9.7 11.0 12.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 76 24 100 21.4 19.7 17.3 -0.9 37.5 44.0 19.2 20.8 22.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 76 24 100 21.0 19.5 16.5 -0.8 39.6 45.9 18.9 20.4 21.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 75 25 100 21.4 19.7 16.7 -0.9 37.9 44.2 19.3 20.8 22.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 51 49 0 100 18.5 19.2 16.6 -1.0 37.3 43.8 18.7 20.3 21.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 53 47 0 100 19.4 19.9 16.2 -1.1 35.4 41.9 19.7 21.2 22.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 52 48 0 100 19.2 20.5 17.6 -0.5 43.4 48.3 19.5 21.1 22.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 52 48 0 100 18.3 18.5 16.3 -1.3 32.5 37.7 18.6 20.0 21.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 52 48 0 100 19.8 20.4 16.4 -1.1 36.1 42.5 20.1 21.6 23.0 30 Nis 06700G01 0 76 24 100 20.5 19.0 17.8 -0.9 38.6 43.4 18.5 19.9 21.2 30 Palic 37000G16 52 48 0 100 18.0 19.0 16.3 -0.6 42.1 47.9 18.2 19.6 20.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 76 24 100 21.0 19.4 18.2 -0.9 37.9 43.3 18.9 20.4 21.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 53 47 0 100 15.1 16.2 14.5 -0.5 43.3 48.7 15.4 16.8 18.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 75 25 100 21.3 19.4 17.8 -1.0 36.0 42.7 19.2 20.6 22.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 75 25 100 21.2 19.9 18.0 -0.7 40.7 45.0 19.2 20.6 21.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 75 25 100 21.4 19.9 18.4 -0.8 40.0 45.4 19.3 20.7 22.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 51 49 0 100 19.0 20.0 17.5 -0.7 41.4 47.1 19.3 20.8 22.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 52 48 0 100 18.6 19.0 16.7 -1.1 35.4 41.7 18.8 20.0 21.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 75 25 100 21.5 19.7 16.1 -1.2 34.6 40.9 19.6 20.9 22.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 53 47 0 100 18.8 19.3 17.4 -1.0 35.8 42.3 19.1 20.4 21.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 52 48 0 100 18.2 18.5 16.4 -1.3 33.0 38.8 18.5 20.1 21.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 54 46 0 100 13.9 15.2 15.6 -0.5 43.2 48.7 14.3 15.9 17.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 75 25 100 20.9 19.1 18.1 -1.1 35.6 41.7 18.9 20.2 21.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------