***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 25.09.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 06.10.2014.-12.10.2014. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 68 32 0 100 6.5 6.8 9.3 -1.3 28.0 35.7 7.3 8.7 9.9 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 63 37 0 100 7.0 7.4 9.2 -1.1 31.5 38.0 7.5 8.7 9.9 30 Becej 27400G00 65 35 0 100 9.0 9.2 9.0 -1.2 28.3 36.4 9.6 10.7 11.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 71 29 0 100 4.4 4.1 6.5 -1.7 20.5 28.9 5.1 6.3 7.4 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 68 32 0 100 5.8 5.7 6.7 -1.5 23.4 31.2 6.5 7.9 9.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 66 34 0 100 5.5 5.5 5.5 -1.4 25.5 32.8 6.0 7.2 8.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 64 36 0 100 7.2 7.5 9.1 -1.2 30.1 36.6 7.7 8.8 9.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 63 37 0 100 1.7 1.8 5.7 -1.2 27.4 35.6 2.2 3.3 4.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 65 35 0 100 7.2 7.2 7.3 -1.4 26.4 34.2 7.7 8.9 10.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 64 36 0 100 6.9 6.9 6.0 -1.3 26.7 34.8 7.4 8.5 9.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 66 34 0 100 6.3 6.2 6.5 -1.5 24.0 31.5 6.9 8.0 9.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 66 34 0 100 5.4 5.4 6.2 -1.4 24.7 32.7 5.9 6.9 7.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 66 34 0 100 5.8 5.7 5.7 -1.6 23.5 30.6 6.4 7.5 8.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 62 38 0 100 7.5 7.7 7.5 -1.1 29.5 37.5 7.9 8.9 9.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 71 29 0 100 7.5 7.2 7.0 -1.8 19.8 28.4 8.1 9.0 9.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 67 33 0 100 7.1 6.9 6.1 -1.6 22.6 30.0 7.7 8.9 9.9 30 Nis 06700G01 61 39 0 100 7.5 8.0 9.0 -0.9 34.2 39.5 7.9 9.0 10.0 30 Palic 37000G16 63 37 0 100 5.9 5.9 5.6 -1.2 27.4 35.8 6.3 7.5 8.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 63 37 0 100 7.2 7.5 9.2 -1.0 31.6 38.4 7.6 8.7 9.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 62 38 0 100 2.2 2.5 4.6 -1.0 31.3 39.2 2.7 3.8 4.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 65 35 0 100 6.3 6.3 8.3 -1.4 26.6 34.7 6.9 8.1 9.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 60 40 0 100 6.5 7.0 9.0 -0.9 34.6 40.1 6.9 8.0 9.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 65 35 0 100 6.7 7.0 8.9 -1.1 30.6 38.0 7.2 8.3 9.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 62 38 0 100 6.6 6.6 7.3 -1.2 27.8 36.3 7.0 8.0 8.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 73 27 0 100 6.7 6.8 7.4 -1.5 24.1 32.3 7.6 8.8 10.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 67 33 0 100 6.3 6.2 6.1 -1.5 24.3 31.3 6.8 7.8 8.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 71 29 0 100 6.5 6.8 8.4 -1.4 26.7 34.3 7.4 8.8 10.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 70 30 0 100 5.6 5.3 6.8 -1.7 20.3 28.8 6.2 7.3 8.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 61 39 0 100 5.3 5.4 5.2 -1.2 28.3 36.6 5.7 6.8 7.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 65 35 0 100 7.2 7.6 9.3 -1.2 29.9 37.0 7.8 9.1 10.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------