***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 24.09.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 05.10.2020.-11.10.2020. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 53 47 0 100 3.1 11.4 11.6 110.6 68.5 51.1 2.6 5.7 10.4 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 56 44 0 100 4.3 14.2 11.5 117.4 70.4 55.1 4.1 7.7 12.5 30 Becej 27400G00 56 44 0 100 3.6 12.1 11.6 104.9 66.7 50.3 3.3 6.8 11.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 54 46 0 100 4.4 15.7 14.0 106.5 67.8 50.5 3.9 8.2 14.6 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 56 44 0 100 3.6 9.7 11.1 90.8 63.0 47.1 3.5 6.5 10.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 53 47 0 100 4.0 8.3 10.0 70.9 54.3 41.0 3.6 7.1 12.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 55 45 0 100 3.8 13.3 11.8 120.9 71.3 55.5 3.6 6.8 11.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 54 46 0 100 6.5 13.3 9.9 78.6 57.9 45.2 6.3 10.8 16.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 57 43 0 100 3.9 10.1 10.0 84.5 60.5 45.9 3.8 7.2 12.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 52 48 0 100 4.5 10.0 10.0 79.9 58.5 45.8 4.0 7.6 12.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 76 24 100 8.0 9.4 12.0 96.7 64.2 51.2 2.7 5.7 10.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 75 25 100 9.0 10.7 11.2 96.3 64.4 52.1 2.7 6.1 11.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 80 20 100 9.4 12.8 13.1 102.9 66.8 57.1 3.3 7.0 12.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 51 49 0 100 5.7 17.1 13.4 100.8 65.1 48.2 4.9 10.0 17.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 52 48 0 100 3.1 10.2 14.7 105.8 67.8 52.4 2.7 5.5 9.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 75 25 100 8.5 10.3 12.3 98.3 65.1 51.3 2.5 5.7 10.6 30 Nis 06700G01 53 47 0 100 3.2 11.9 12.2 126.6 72.6 56.0 2.9 5.7 9.5 30 Palic 37000G16 51 49 0 100 4.7 11.5 10.7 80.5 58.5 46.1 4.0 8.4 14.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 53 47 0 100 4.1 14.9 11.7 115.1 69.8 53.8 3.6 7.4 13.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 81 19 100 13.9 17.8 16.2 102.9 65.4 56.9 5.8 10.9 18.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 55 45 0 100 4.4 12.1 11.3 99.0 65.1 49.4 4.2 7.7 12.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 52 48 0 100 3.3 13.1 12.4 117.0 70.3 53.6 2.8 6.1 11.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 51 49 0 100 4.2 13.4 12.1 111.8 69.0 51.6 3.7 7.2 12.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 53 47 0 100 4.6 14.0 12.2 99.6 64.6 49.1 3.9 8.3 14.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 53 47 0 100 4.9 12.7 12.8 104.0 66.6 50.9 4.7 8.0 12.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 55 45 0 100 3.5 9.3 10.8 83.7 59.5 45.2 3.0 6.6 11.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 53 47 0 100 3.4 11.1 12.2 108.9 68.0 52.2 3.1 6.1 10.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 54 46 0 100 2.5 8.2 12.7 97.6 65.5 49.3 2.1 4.6 8.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 77 23 100 16.6 17.4 12.1 86.5 60.2 48.9 7.2 12.8 20.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 53 47 0 100 4.0 11.9 11.4 112.7 69.2 54.2 3.8 6.8 10.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------