***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 24.09.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 05.10.2020.-11.10.2020. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 23 77 100 22.3 23.2 22.1 3.2 80.4 77.0 18.9 20.4 21.7 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 21 79 100 22.7 23.5 22.3 3.2 80.5 76.6 19.2 20.7 22.0 30 Becej 27400G00 0 23 77 100 22.8 23.6 22.6 3.2 79.3 76.0 19.3 20.8 22.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 28 72 100 15.9 16.8 19.1 3.0 78.0 75.0 11.9 13.7 15.3 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 22 78 100 22.8 23.5 20.9 3.2 78.2 75.3 19.2 20.8 22.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 21 79 100 22.6 23.5 19.6 3.6 80.5 77.2 18.8 20.4 21.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 19 81 100 22.3 23.3 22.3 3.3 82.1 78.0 18.9 20.3 21.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 23 77 100 13.0 13.7 20.0 3.4 79.0 75.6 9.7 11.1 12.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 21 79 100 23.0 23.7 21.7 3.3 78.9 75.9 19.3 20.8 22.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 20 80 100 22.6 23.4 20.8 3.7 80.6 77.1 19.0 20.5 21.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 21 79 100 23.1 23.7 21.5 3.4 78.4 75.5 19.3 20.9 22.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 24 76 100 22.7 23.3 20.7 3.2 77.4 74.4 18.8 20.5 22.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 23 77 100 23.4 24.0 21.0 3.2 78.0 75.2 19.9 21.4 22.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 22 78 100 23.4 24.5 22.1 3.6 81.4 77.1 19.6 21.2 22.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 27 73 100 22.0 22.6 20.7 2.9 77.2 74.4 18.7 20.2 21.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 22 78 100 23.9 24.5 21.0 3.3 78.2 75.4 20.3 21.8 23.2 30 Nis 06700G01 0 23 77 100 22.0 23.1 22.0 3.3 82.0 77.5 18.7 20.1 21.4 30 Palic 37000G16 0 20 80 100 21.9 22.8 20.5 3.7 81.0 77.0 18.3 19.8 21.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 21 79 100 22.5 23.4 22.6 3.3 80.5 76.5 19.0 20.5 21.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 23 77 100 18.9 19.7 18.4 3.4 79.8 75.8 15.4 16.9 18.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 20 80 100 22.8 23.5 22.3 3.3 79.7 76.6 19.3 20.7 22.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 21 79 100 22.8 23.9 22.2 3.4 82.5 77.6 19.3 20.8 22.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 20 80 100 22.9 23.8 22.9 3.4 81.1 77.0 19.4 20.9 22.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 21 79 100 23.1 24.0 22.0 3.6 80.8 76.9 19.3 20.9 22.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 24 76 100 21.9 22.5 20.7 3.0 78.6 75.4 18.9 20.2 21.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 27 73 100 23.0 23.3 19.9 2.8 75.2 72.7 19.8 21.2 22.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 21 79 100 22.5 23.3 21.6 3.2 80.9 77.3 19.2 20.6 21.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 25 75 100 22.5 23.3 20.1 3.2 78.5 75.5 18.6 20.3 21.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 23 77 100 18.1 19.0 19.8 3.6 80.3 76.3 14.4 15.9 17.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 23 77 100 22.3 23.1 22.3 3.1 80.1 76.5 19.0 20.4 21.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------