***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 24.09.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 28.09.2020.-04.10.2020. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 90 10 100 21.5 22.3 21.4 1.1 63.1 61.9 19.8 21.2 22.6 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 90 10 100 22.1 22.7 21.5 1.0 61.8 60.8 20.5 21.8 23.0 30 Becej 27400G00 0 90 10 100 22.0 22.8 21.9 1.1 62.9 61.9 20.5 21.8 23.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 89 11 100 14.9 15.9 18.4 1.2 64.4 63.6 13.0 14.6 16.1 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 90 10 100 22.2 23.0 20.2 1.0 62.2 61.4 20.5 22.0 23.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 92 8 100 21.1 21.8 18.2 0.9 60.5 59.9 19.4 20.9 22.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 89 11 100 21.7 22.4 21.3 1.0 62.7 61.6 20.1 21.4 22.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 91 9 100 11.5 11.8 18.3 0.7 57.6 57.1 9.9 11.2 12.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 90 10 100 22.0 22.9 21.2 1.1 63.0 62.2 20.3 21.8 23.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 89 11 100 21.7 22.6 19.7 1.3 64.6 63.5 20.1 21.4 22.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 90 10 100 22.1 22.7 20.7 0.9 60.4 59.8 20.5 21.8 23.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 92 8 100 21.5 21.7 19.2 0.5 55.2 54.9 19.8 21.3 22.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 93 7 100 22.3 22.5 19.9 0.3 54.0 53.8 20.7 22.1 23.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 48 52 100 23.5 23.7 21.4 1.5 67.5 66.1 20.9 22.3 23.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 91 9 100 21.8 22.4 20.9 1.0 61.8 61.3 20.2 21.5 22.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 92 8 100 22.8 23.2 19.9 0.6 57.0 56.7 21.2 22.6 24.0 30 Nis 06700G01 0 88 12 100 21.3 21.9 21.1 1.1 63.3 62.2 19.8 21.0 22.1 30 Palic 37000G16 0 89 11 100 21.2 22.0 18.9 1.1 62.8 61.7 19.7 21.0 22.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 90 10 100 21.7 22.5 21.8 1.1 63.3 62.1 20.2 21.5 22.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 91 9 100 17.5 17.6 16.4 0.3 53.6 53.2 15.9 17.3 18.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 89 11 100 22.0 23.0 21.8 1.3 64.9 63.7 20.4 21.8 23.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 47 53 100 23.0 23.0 21.5 1.3 66.4 65.0 20.6 21.8 23.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 88 12 100 22.0 22.9 22.1 1.3 65.7 64.3 20.5 21.8 23.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 88 12 100 22.1 23.1 21.2 1.4 65.7 64.5 20.4 21.8 23.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 91 9 100 21.5 22.1 20.2 0.9 60.9 60.0 19.9 21.3 22.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 92 8 100 22.0 21.5 17.9 -0.3 46.1 46.3 20.3 21.8 23.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 90 10 100 21.7 22.3 20.7 0.9 61.7 60.6 20.1 21.4 22.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 89 11 100 22.0 23.0 19.7 1.2 64.9 64.2 20.3 21.7 23.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 91 9 100 16.8 17.3 18.0 0.8 59.0 58.2 15.2 16.6 17.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 90 10 100 21.7 22.4 21.5 0.9 61.5 60.5 20.2 21.5 22.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------