***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 18.09.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 13.10.2014.-19.10.2014. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 55 45 0 100 2.6 9.1 9.9 113.6 69.3 47.6 2.4 4.8 8.2 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 75 25 100 6.4 9.4 10.5 121.5 71.3 52.8 2.3 4.6 7.8 30 Becej 27400G00 52 48 0 100 2.5 9.4 10.4 118.6 70.2 51.5 2.1 4.5 8.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 52 48 0 100 3.3 13.3 11.9 115.9 69.8 47.1 2.7 6.1 11.6 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 57 43 0 100 2.7 10.1 11.2 111.1 68.3 47.7 2.5 5.2 9.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 61 39 0 100 3.3 13.6 12.0 121.1 71.2 48.4 3.4 6.7 11.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 51 49 0 100 2.4 8.9 10.3 115.4 69.8 51.2 2.1 4.3 7.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 58 42 0 100 4.6 13.9 10.5 102.6 65.7 48.6 4.5 8.5 14.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 59 41 0 100 2.6 9.3 10.9 106.0 67.0 47.4 2.5 5.1 8.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 56 44 0 100 4.1 12.8 11.6 108.3 67.6 50.1 3.9 7.4 12.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 56 44 0 100 3.4 12.1 10.7 119.7 70.7 50.0 3.2 6.2 10.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 58 42 0 100 2.7 9.5 9.0 106.6 66.9 46.5 2.6 5.3 9.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 64 36 0 100 2.8 11.5 10.1 111.8 68.3 46.5 2.9 6.1 10.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 75 25 100 10.3 15.9 13.5 124.6 71.7 54.0 3.1 7.0 12.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 56 44 0 100 2.5 11.4 12.0 119.4 71.0 45.7 2.1 4.9 9.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 58 42 0 100 3.0 10.9 10.6 123.2 71.5 48.7 2.9 5.6 9.2 30 Nis 06700G01 0 75 25 100 6.0 8.5 10.1 116.8 70.2 51.1 2.1 4.2 7.4 30 Palic 37000G16 55 45 0 100 3.8 12.5 12.6 107.9 67.3 51.5 3.6 7.0 12.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 51 49 0 100 2.9 11.4 10.5 122.4 71.4 53.0 2.5 5.2 9.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 55 45 0 100 4.0 11.2 13.1 91.9 62.0 48.1 3.6 7.3 12.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 57 43 0 100 2.5 8.3 10.1 105.8 67.0 47.4 2.5 4.8 8.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 75 25 100 5.9 8.7 10.3 119.6 70.9 52.4 1.9 4.1 7.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 55 45 0 100 2.6 10.9 10.9 121.9 71.1 52.5 2.2 4.9 9.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 53 47 0 100 2.9 12.5 12.4 118.9 70.2 53.4 2.4 5.6 10.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 76 24 100 6.8 9.4 11.4 111.3 68.6 48.9 2.1 4.7 8.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 59 41 0 100 3.5 12.3 9.3 108.3 67.4 44.6 3.5 6.9 11.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 52 48 0 100 2.8 9.8 11.0 112.9 69.2 49.4 2.4 5.0 8.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 57 43 0 100 3.0 11.1 12.0 124.3 71.9 46.6 2.8 5.5 9.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 57 43 0 100 5.3 16.1 12.7 103.3 65.9 50.8 5.1 9.7 16.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 75 25 100 6.7 10.2 10.6 122.5 71.5 52.6 2.1 4.6 8.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------