***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 17.09.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 12.10.2020.-18.10.2020. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 58 42 0 100 15.9 18.2 18.2 0.1 51.4 51.0 16.4 18.1 19.7 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 61 39 0 100 16.1 18.3 18.0 0.0 49.9 50.1 16.7 18.3 19.8 30 Becej 27400G00 58 42 0 100 16.2 18.4 18.4 0.0 49.6 49.8 16.7 18.4 20.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 54 46 0 100 9.2 11.5 16.1 0.2 52.6 51.4 9.6 11.2 12.8 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 52 48 0 100 16.4 18.3 16.8 0.0 49.5 49.6 16.7 18.3 19.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 76 24 100 18.4 18.1 15.7 0.4 53.8 52.3 15.8 17.7 19.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 60 40 0 100 15.7 18.1 18.1 0.1 51.6 51.2 16.3 17.9 19.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 75 25 100 9.8 9.2 16.0 0.1 51.0 50.8 7.2 9.0 10.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 53 47 0 100 16.4 18.4 17.2 0.0 50.1 50.1 16.7 18.4 20.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 52 48 0 100 16.1 18.2 16.5 0.2 51.8 51.3 16.4 18.0 19.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 52 48 0 100 16.3 18.2 16.9 -0.1 49.3 49.5 16.6 18.3 19.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 76 24 100 18.5 17.7 16.8 0.0 49.6 49.8 16.1 17.8 19.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 52 48 0 100 16.4 18.5 16.4 0.1 51.0 50.8 16.7 18.5 20.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 57 43 0 100 16.7 19.0 17.3 0.1 51.5 51.5 17.2 18.9 20.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 52 48 0 100 15.8 17.7 16.8 0.2 52.8 51.5 16.0 17.4 18.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 52 48 0 100 16.9 19.0 16.7 0.1 51.0 50.6 17.2 18.9 20.5 30 Nis 06700G01 62 38 0 100 15.5 17.9 17.8 0.1 51.7 51.1 16.1 17.8 19.3 30 Palic 37000G16 53 47 0 100 15.6 17.6 16.3 0.2 52.3 52.0 15.9 17.4 18.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 60 40 0 100 16.0 18.1 18.2 0.0 49.4 49.8 16.6 18.2 19.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 52 48 0 100 12.4 14.9 14.3 0.2 52.3 52.2 12.7 14.6 16.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 57 43 0 100 16.1 18.3 17.8 0.0 50.5 50.3 16.6 18.2 19.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 60 40 0 100 16.2 18.6 17.8 0.1 51.0 50.7 16.8 18.5 20.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 58 42 0 100 16.3 18.5 18.5 0.0 50.0 50.2 16.8 18.5 20.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 55 45 0 100 16.4 18.7 17.3 0.1 51.4 51.2 16.8 18.6 20.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 58 42 0 100 15.8 17.9 16.7 0.2 51.9 51.1 16.3 17.8 19.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 77 23 100 18.8 18.3 16.5 0.2 52.3 51.7 16.5 18.1 19.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 58 42 0 100 16.0 18.4 17.6 0.2 52.6 51.7 16.5 18.2 19.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 52 48 0 100 16.0 18.1 16.5 0.3 53.3 51.8 16.3 17.8 19.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 52 48 0 100 11.6 13.8 15.5 0.1 51.4 51.8 11.9 13.7 15.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 59 41 0 100 15.9 18.0 18.1 0.0 49.8 50.1 16.4 18.0 19.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------