***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 17.09.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 21.09.2020.-27.09.2020. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 4 96 100 25.3 29.5 26.9 5.7 97.8 95.4 21.5 22.9 24.3 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 4 96 100 25.7 29.5 26.5 5.3 96.8 94.5 21.7 23.2 24.6 30 Becej 27400G00 0 4 96 100 26.1 30.0 27.0 5.5 96.9 94.3 21.9 23.5 24.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 2 98 100 18.8 22.9 23.3 5.2 97.4 94.7 14.7 16.2 17.6 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 3 97 100 26.5 30.0 24.9 5.1 95.6 92.6 22.3 23.9 25.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 3 97 100 25.5 29.3 23.5 5.6 96.7 94.1 21.4 22.9 24.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 4 96 100 25.2 29.2 26.5 5.5 97.5 95.4 21.4 22.8 24.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 4 96 100 15.3 17.9 22.9 4.8 93.2 90.0 11.0 12.6 14.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 3 97 100 26.3 29.8 25.9 5.1 95.8 92.9 21.9 23.5 25.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 3 97 100 26.0 29.7 24.2 5.3 95.8 92.9 21.4 23.1 24.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 3 97 100 26.2 29.2 25.5 5.1 94.6 91.6 22.0 23.6 25.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 3 97 100 25.6 28.4 24.0 4.7 93.0 89.9 21.1 22.8 24.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 4 96 100 26.6 29.4 25.0 4.7 93.3 90.5 22.2 23.8 25.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 4 96 100 26.3 30.5 25.7 5.4 96.3 93.6 21.6 23.4 25.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 2 98 100 25.8 28.8 25.6 4.5 95.2 92.6 22.0 23.4 24.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 2 98 100 27.0 29.9 24.9 4.9 94.5 91.7 22.9 24.4 25.8 30 Nis 06700G01 0 4 96 100 24.8 28.5 26.1 5.4 97.3 95.2 21.0 22.4 23.7 30 Palic 37000G16 0 4 96 100 25.2 28.4 23.1 5.0 94.2 91.2 20.7 22.4 23.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 4 96 100 25.6 29.4 26.8 5.4 96.8 94.4 21.5 23.1 24.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 7 93 100 21.2 23.2 20.5 4.0 89.7 86.3 16.7 18.4 20.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 3 97 100 26.1 30.3 27.0 5.7 97.3 94.6 21.9 23.5 24.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 4 96 100 25.8 30.1 26.3 5.4 97.4 95.2 21.6 23.2 24.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 4 96 100 25.9 29.8 27.0 5.5 96.8 94.3 21.7 23.2 24.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 4 96 100 26.0 29.8 25.7 5.4 96.0 93.2 21.5 23.2 24.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 4 96 100 25.3 28.7 25.4 5.3 96.9 94.2 21.6 23.0 24.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 3 97 100 26.2 28.7 23.4 4.5 92.2 89.6 21.8 23.4 25.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 4 96 100 25.4 29.2 26.2 5.6 97.5 95.2 21.6 23.0 24.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 2 98 100 26.2 30.1 24.6 5.2 97.2 94.5 22.0 23.5 25.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 5 95 100 20.7 23.3 22.0 4.4 91.6 88.5 16.1 17.8 19.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 4 96 100 25.5 29.2 26.6 5.3 96.9 94.5 21.6 23.1 24.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------