***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 17.09.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 28.09.2020.-04.10.2020. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 76 24 100 10.2 10.7 12.6 1.0 64.4 59.2 8.6 9.7 10.8 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 76 24 100 10.2 10.4 11.9 0.6 59.9 55.7 8.3 9.6 10.9 30 Becej 27400G00 0 76 24 100 12.3 12.6 12.5 0.7 61.7 57.0 10.8 11.8 12.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 78 22 100 7.8 8.4 9.9 1.0 65.2 60.5 6.1 7.3 8.5 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 77 23 100 9.3 9.5 10.4 0.7 60.8 57.1 7.6 8.8 9.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 39 61 100 9.1 9.3 8.7 1.3 70.5 64.6 6.9 8.0 9.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 52 48 0 100 8.5 10.7 12.1 0.8 62.4 57.6 8.7 9.8 10.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 75 25 100 4.1 4.2 8.2 0.6 59.6 56.6 2.7 3.6 4.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 77 23 100 10.4 10.7 10.5 0.7 61.2 57.1 8.9 10.0 11.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 76 24 100 10.0 10.1 8.9 0.6 60.1 56.6 8.5 9.5 10.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 76 24 100 9.6 9.8 9.9 0.6 60.0 56.6 8.1 9.2 10.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 75 25 100 8.4 8.6 9.0 0.6 59.9 56.8 6.9 8.0 9.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 51 49 0 100 7.4 9.4 8.8 0.8 62.0 58.3 7.6 8.6 9.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 76 24 100 10.6 10.7 10.1 0.6 59.5 55.8 9.2 10.2 11.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 79 21 100 10.3 11.1 11.7 1.1 68.9 63.5 8.9 9.9 10.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 76 24 100 10.4 10.7 9.4 0.8 62.5 58.7 8.9 9.9 10.9 30 Nis 06700G01 0 76 24 100 10.3 10.5 11.5 0.6 59.5 55.5 8.8 9.9 10.9 30 Palic 37000G16 0 77 23 100 8.9 9.0 8.2 0.5 58.9 55.9 7.4 8.4 9.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 77 23 100 10.2 10.4 11.9 0.6 59.5 55.4 8.6 9.8 10.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 51 49 0 100 3.4 5.1 6.7 0.5 58.1 55.7 3.6 4.6 5.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 76 24 100 9.9 10.4 11.8 0.9 63.9 58.8 8.3 9.4 10.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 79 21 100 9.3 9.5 11.6 0.6 59.9 55.8 7.9 8.9 9.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 76 24 100 9.8 9.9 11.9 0.6 59.3 55.5 8.2 9.3 10.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 76 24 100 9.9 10.0 10.1 0.6 59.8 56.2 8.5 9.5 10.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 76 24 100 10.3 10.8 11.7 1.0 64.2 59.5 8.5 9.8 11.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 54 46 0 100 7.6 9.5 8.7 0.9 63.6 59.5 7.8 8.7 9.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 75 25 100 10.6 11.3 12.2 1.1 65.4 60.1 8.5 10.0 11.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 80 20 100 8.7 9.5 10.3 1.1 67.2 62.2 7.3 8.4 9.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 76 24 100 7.9 7.9 7.6 0.4 57.0 54.8 6.4 7.5 8.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 76 24 100 10.7 10.9 12.2 0.7 60.9 56.4 8.9 10.1 11.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------