***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 13.09.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 24.09.2018.-30.09.2018. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 70 30 0 100 2.8 8.7 9.8 75.8 55.5 33.5 3.3 7.1 12.8 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 72 28 0 100 2.7 8.0 9.4 84.3 58.5 35.0 3.4 6.2 9.9 30 Becej 27400G00 68 32 0 100 3.1 9.2 9.7 77.4 55.5 34.8 3.6 7.5 13.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 72 28 0 100 3.7 14.6 11.0 79.2 58.1 34.3 4.6 10.5 19.9 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 74 26 0 100 3.0 10.4 10.3 79.4 56.5 33.8 3.9 8.2 14.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 71 29 0 100 3.7 10.1 9.4 70.3 53.4 35.5 4.4 8.9 15.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 72 28 0 100 2.3 7.6 9.2 81.7 58.3 34.9 2.8 5.7 10.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 63 37 0 100 6.2 17.5 11.9 92.3 61.2 41.4 6.7 12.3 20.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 69 31 0 100 3.3 10.4 10.3 84.0 58.0 35.1 3.9 7.8 13.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 65 35 0 100 4.8 14.0 11.4 87.9 59.5 39.1 5.4 10.2 17.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 71 29 0 100 3.6 9.9 10.2 75.9 53.8 34.8 4.5 8.6 14.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 63 37 0 100 3.7 10.4 10.7 86.7 58.9 39.2 3.9 7.7 13.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 65 35 0 100 4.1 10.6 10.1 78.4 57.1 38.2 4.5 8.4 13.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 64 36 0 100 4.7 11.5 11.4 75.9 53.6 36.7 5.0 10.1 17.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 76 24 0 100 2.7 10.3 9.7 71.2 56.2 31.8 3.6 8.1 14.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 66 34 0 100 3.3 8.5 9.7 75.0 54.9 35.6 3.7 7.2 12.2 30 Nis 06700G01 73 27 0 100 2.2 6.7 9.5 84.9 59.6 35.9 2.8 5.1 8.1 30 Palic 37000G16 63 37 0 100 4.3 12.7 12.1 86.1 57.6 39.7 4.3 9.5 17.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 69 31 0 100 2.5 7.8 9.6 84.4 58.1 35.5 2.9 5.9 10.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 59 41 0 100 6.0 16.1 14.9 94.2 60.3 43.5 6.0 11.4 19.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 70 30 0 100 3.3 10.5 10.1 80.6 57.3 34.1 3.8 8.1 14.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 68 32 0 100 2.6 7.5 10.1 85.4 59.2 37.0 3.0 5.6 9.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 67 33 0 100 3.2 8.5 9.8 80.4 56.1 35.9 3.6 7.0 11.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 66 34 0 100 4.1 10.7 10.7 76.8 54.2 36.6 4.6 9.2 16.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 73 27 0 100 3.5 10.5 11.0 74.0 54.1 32.9 4.5 9.2 15.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 65 35 0 100 3.8 9.9 10.8 80.0 56.8 36.5 4.1 7.9 13.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 71 29 0 100 3.8 10.5 10.2 72.6 53.6 32.7 4.6 9.2 16.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 72 28 0 100 2.8 10.3 10.0 77.6 57.9 33.6 3.4 7.5 14.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 62 38 0 100 7.3 20.6 13.6 89.5 58.6 42.3 7.5 15.2 26.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 70 30 0 100 2.3 7.2 9.3 81.0 57.1 34.5 2.8 5.5 9.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------