***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 11.09.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 22.09.2014.-28.09.2014. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 80 20 100 23.3 23.4 22.0 0.5 57.4 54.9 21.2 22.7 24.2 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 81 19 100 23.5 23.3 21.7 0.2 52.7 51.2 21.5 23.0 24.5 30 Becej 27400G00 0 81 19 100 23.8 24.2 22.3 0.8 60.7 57.7 21.7 23.3 24.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 79 21 100 16.6 17.1 20.7 0.8 60.9 58.2 14.5 16.1 17.5 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 81 19 100 24.2 25.2 21.3 1.3 66.3 62.2 22.0 23.7 25.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 36 64 100 24.5 24.9 20.3 1.9 72.4 67.7 21.1 22.7 24.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 80 20 100 23.2 22.8 21.6 0.1 51.6 50.3 21.2 22.7 24.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 36 64 100 14.3 14.7 20.5 1.9 72.4 67.5 11.0 12.5 14.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 43 57 100 25.0 25.0 21.7 1.4 67.6 63.2 21.7 23.3 24.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 39 61 100 24.8 25.1 20.9 1.7 70.9 66.2 21.2 22.9 24.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 39 61 100 25.2 25.3 21.2 1.6 69.8 65.1 21.7 23.4 24.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 35 65 100 24.6 24.8 21.2 1.7 70.6 65.9 20.9 22.6 24.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 43 57 100 25.3 25.6 20.8 1.6 69.2 65.1 21.9 23.6 25.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 43 57 100 24.9 25.0 21.6 1.4 68.1 63.8 21.4 23.2 24.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 78 22 100 23.8 23.7 20.7 0.4 55.6 54.2 21.8 23.3 24.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 39 61 100 25.9 26.0 21.1 1.5 68.9 64.5 22.6 24.2 25.7 30 Nis 06700G01 0 80 20 100 22.8 22.4 21.3 0.1 51.5 50.3 20.9 22.3 23.6 30 Palic 37000G16 0 38 62 100 24.0 24.5 20.5 1.9 72.7 67.9 20.5 22.2 23.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 81 19 100 23.3 23.3 22.0 0.4 55.8 53.7 21.3 22.8 24.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 33 67 100 20.3 20.8 18.8 2.0 74.3 69.6 16.6 18.3 19.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 81 19 100 23.8 24.6 22.1 1.1 63.9 60.2 21.7 23.3 24.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 81 19 100 23.6 23.5 21.6 0.3 54.8 53.0 21.5 23.0 24.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 81 19 100 23.5 24.0 22.2 0.8 61.0 58.0 21.4 23.0 24.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 41 59 100 24.7 24.9 21.6 1.5 69.3 64.8 21.3 23.0 24.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 80 20 100 23.3 23.6 20.8 0.7 59.6 56.9 21.4 22.8 24.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 43 57 100 24.9 25.1 20.7 1.6 68.8 64.9 21.6 23.2 24.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 82 18 100 23.3 23.4 21.3 0.5 57.5 55.0 21.4 22.8 24.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 78 22 100 24.1 24.4 21.0 0.8 60.8 58.2 21.9 23.5 24.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 35 65 100 19.6 20.1 19.8 2.0 73.8 69.0 15.8 17.6 19.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 81 19 100 23.3 23.2 21.9 0.3 54.0 52.2 21.4 22.8 24.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------