***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 08.09.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 12.09.2016.-09.10.2016. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 31 69 100 11.2 11.4 13.7 1.0 74.1 68.9 9.8 10.4 11.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 30 70 100 11.3 11.7 13.4 1.2 78.6 72.5 9.6 10.3 11.1 30 Becej 27400G00 0 29 71 100 13.3 13.6 13.9 1.1 76.4 71.0 11.9 12.5 13.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 33 67 100 8.9 9.3 11.1 1.2 79.6 73.3 7.4 8.1 8.7 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 31 69 100 10.4 10.7 11.6 1.0 75.1 69.9 8.7 9.4 10.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 33 67 100 9.3 9.5 9.4 1.0 74.0 69.3 7.9 8.6 9.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 31 69 100 11.3 11.6 13.5 1.2 77.5 71.7 10.0 10.5 11.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 30 70 100 5.2 5.4 9.5 1.0 76.1 71.2 3.9 4.5 5.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 30 70 100 11.3 11.5 11.8 1.0 75.0 70.0 9.9 10.5 11.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 30 70 100 10.9 11.2 10.4 1.1 76.4 71.3 9.6 10.2 10.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 29 71 100 10.5 10.7 11.1 1.0 75.7 70.8 9.1 9.7 10.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 31 69 100 9.3 9.4 10.2 0.9 73.3 69.1 8.0 8.6 9.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 31 69 100 9.9 9.8 9.7 0.7 67.2 64.2 8.5 9.1 9.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 28 72 100 11.4 11.6 11.7 1.0 75.0 70.0 10.2 10.7 11.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 30 70 100 11.4 11.9 12.5 1.3 82.8 76.3 10.1 10.7 11.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 30 70 100 11.4 11.5 10.5 0.9 73.4 69.0 9.9 10.5 11.2 30 Nis 06700G01 0 28 72 100 11.4 11.8 13.2 1.3 81.5 74.9 10.1 10.6 11.2 30 Palic 37000G16 0 29 71 100 9.9 10.1 9.8 1.1 76.2 71.2 8.3 9.0 9.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 29 71 100 11.2 11.6 13.5 1.3 79.2 73.3 9.9 10.5 11.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 33 67 100 6.0 6.2 7.9 0.9 73.6 68.8 4.7 5.3 5.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 29 71 100 10.9 11.1 13.1 1.0 74.5 69.4 9.4 10.0 10.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 30 70 100 10.4 10.9 13.3 1.4 81.4 75.3 9.1 9.7 10.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 29 71 100 10.8 11.3 13.6 1.3 80.2 74.3 9.3 10.0 10.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 29 71 100 10.7 11.0 11.7 1.1 76.7 71.5 9.5 10.0 10.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 30 70 100 11.5 11.7 12.6 1.0 73.6 68.5 9.8 10.6 11.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 39 61 100 10.0 9.9 9.3 0.6 66.0 62.9 8.8 9.4 9.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 31 69 100 11.9 12.1 13.1 1.0 73.8 68.6 9.9 10.8 11.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 31 69 100 9.8 10.2 11.4 1.2 79.8 73.7 8.3 8.9 9.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 30 70 100 9.0 9.2 9.2 1.0 75.3 70.4 7.6 8.2 8.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 29 71 100 11.6 11.9 13.6 1.2 77.3 71.6 10.1 10.8 11.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------