***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 05.09.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 09.09.2019.-15.09.2019. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 86 14 100 12.0 12.5 15.4 0.7 62.6 61.1 10.8 11.7 12.7 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 87 13 100 11.7 11.7 14.5 0.2 53.2 52.8 10.4 11.5 12.5 30 Becej 27400G00 0 88 12 100 14.0 14.2 15.2 0.4 57.4 56.5 12.8 13.8 14.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 22 78 100 11.2 11.4 13.4 1.4 75.3 73.4 8.4 9.6 10.7 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 39 61 100 11.6 11.7 14.1 1.1 69.4 67.6 9.2 10.3 11.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 3 97 100 11.2 11.8 12.2 2.0 84.6 82.8 8.5 9.5 10.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 85 15 100 12.0 12.0 14.6 0.2 53.4 53.2 10.8 11.8 12.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 26 74 100 7.0 7.2 11.8 1.4 75.0 73.3 4.2 5.4 6.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 39 61 100 12.8 13.0 14.3 1.2 72.2 69.9 10.7 11.7 12.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 33 67 100 12.6 12.9 12.6 1.3 74.0 71.8 10.3 11.3 12.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 34 66 100 12.1 12.2 13.9 1.2 71.7 70.4 9.8 10.9 11.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 26 74 100 10.7 10.9 12.9 1.4 74.8 73.3 8.4 9.4 10.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 7 93 100 11.9 12.2 13.2 1.7 80.5 79.1 9.1 10.1 11.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 87 13 100 12.1 12.5 13.2 0.5 60.6 59.7 10.9 11.9 12.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 11 89 100 13.6 14.1 15.9 1.9 82.0 80.1 11.1 12.1 13.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 21 79 100 13.2 13.4 13.5 1.5 76.2 74.8 10.6 11.7 12.7 30 Nis 06700G01 0 84 16 100 12.3 12.0 13.9 -0.1 48.7 48.8 11.1 12.0 12.9 30 Palic 37000G16 0 38 62 100 11.2 11.3 11.6 1.0 69.3 67.9 8.9 10.0 11.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 87 13 100 11.9 11.8 14.6 0.2 52.9 52.4 10.7 11.6 12.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 26 74 100 7.7 7.7 10.2 1.2 72.5 71.0 5.1 6.2 7.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 44 56 100 12.3 12.5 15.1 1.0 69.1 67.1 10.1 11.2 12.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 83 17 100 11.4 10.9 14.1 -0.2 46.8 47.1 10.1 11.1 12.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 88 12 100 11.3 11.2 14.6 0.1 52.3 52.0 10.0 11.0 12.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 87 13 100 11.7 12.3 13.4 0.7 64.3 63.0 10.4 11.4 12.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 42 58 100 12.5 12.6 15.1 1.1 68.1 66.1 10.4 11.5 12.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 14 86 100 11.9 12.1 12.2 1.6 77.6 76.3 9.4 10.4 11.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 45 55 100 12.9 12.8 15.2 0.9 65.2 63.6 10.5 11.7 12.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 16 84 100 11.6 12.0 14.1 1.7 79.2 77.4 8.9 10.0 11.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 35 65 100 10.5 10.6 11.1 1.1 69.9 68.5 8.1 9.2 10.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 87 13 100 12.2 12.2 14.9 0.3 54.8 54.2 10.9 11.9 12.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------