***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 03.09.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 28.09.2020.-04.10.2020. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 76 24 100 21.8 21.1 21.0 -0.2 47.8 49.0 19.8 21.2 22.6 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 51 49 0 100 20.3 21.6 20.9 -0.3 46.9 48.0 20.5 21.8 23.0 30 Becej 27400G00 51 49 0 100 20.3 21.5 21.3 -0.3 46.6 48.2 20.5 21.8 23.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 52 48 0 100 12.7 14.5 18.9 -0.1 49.1 50.5 13.0 14.6 16.1 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 77 23 100 22.6 21.5 19.4 -0.5 44.4 47.7 20.5 22.0 23.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 76 24 100 21.5 20.7 17.9 -0.2 47.9 49.6 19.4 20.9 22.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 76 24 100 22.0 21.3 20.9 -0.1 48.9 49.4 20.1 21.4 22.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 76 24 100 11.8 10.7 18.3 -0.6 43.2 46.6 9.9 11.2 12.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 76 24 100 22.4 21.4 19.8 -0.4 45.3 48.2 20.3 21.8 23.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 76 24 100 22.0 21.1 18.9 -0.4 45.7 48.5 20.1 21.4 22.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 77 23 100 22.4 21.3 19.5 -0.7 43.0 46.8 20.5 21.8 23.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 76 24 100 21.9 20.6 19.2 -0.8 41.6 45.4 19.8 21.3 22.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 75 25 100 22.8 21.5 18.6 -0.7 42.6 46.1 20.7 22.1 23.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 75 25 100 22.8 22.0 19.7 -0.3 47.1 48.9 20.9 22.3 23.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 55 45 0 100 19.9 21.5 19.9 0.0 50.0 50.4 20.2 21.5 22.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 51 49 0 100 21.0 22.2 19.2 -0.5 44.5 47.8 21.2 22.6 24.0 30 Nis 06700G01 0 75 25 100 21.5 20.9 20.7 -0.1 48.9 49.3 19.8 21.0 22.1 30 Palic 37000G16 0 76 24 100 21.5 20.7 18.4 -0.4 45.7 48.6 19.7 21.0 22.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 53 47 0 100 20.0 21.2 21.1 -0.3 46.2 47.6 20.2 21.5 22.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 51 49 0 100 15.7 16.7 16.1 -0.6 43.2 46.6 15.9 17.3 18.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 76 24 100 22.4 21.5 20.5 -0.3 46.3 48.5 20.4 21.8 23.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 55 45 0 100 20.3 21.7 20.7 -0.1 48.4 49.0 20.6 21.8 23.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 52 48 0 100 20.2 21.5 21.2 -0.4 46.1 47.8 20.5 21.8 23.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 51 49 0 100 20.2 21.6 19.7 -0.3 46.6 48.9 20.4 21.8 23.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 76 24 100 21.8 21.1 19.4 -0.2 47.8 49.2 19.9 21.3 22.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 76 24 100 22.4 21.3 18.8 -0.5 44.0 46.7 20.3 21.8 23.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 75 25 100 22.0 21.4 20.3 -0.1 49.0 49.9 20.1 21.4 22.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 53 47 0 100 20.0 21.7 19.4 0.0 49.9 51.0 20.3 21.7 23.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 75 25 100 17.2 16.1 17.5 -0.6 43.8 47.2 15.2 16.6 17.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 51 49 0 100 20.0 21.3 21.0 -0.3 46.9 48.1 20.2 21.5 22.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------