***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 01.09.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 12.09.2016.-18.09.2016. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 83 17 0 100 3.0 4.0 4.2 31.4 29.2 21.8 4.9 9.9 17.4 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 72 28 0 100 3.5 3.9 3.8 33.9 30.9 24.1 4.4 9.0 15.7 30 Becej 27400G00 80 20 0 100 2.9 4.2 4.7 35.0 32.0 23.1 4.4 8.8 15.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 83 17 0 100 2.5 3.0 3.9 24.5 28.1 20.0 3.9 8.1 14.2 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 76 24 0 100 2.9 4.7 5.4 36.2 36.4 26.0 4.1 8.1 13.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 73 27 0 100 2.0 2.6 5.8 36.5 33.2 24.6 2.6 5.4 9.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 70 30 0 100 3.5 3.9 3.7 32.5 31.9 23.9 4.2 8.5 15.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 75 25 0 100 5.2 9.7 7.7 52.2 41.8 28.2 7.0 12.8 20.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 80 20 0 100 2.6 3.9 5.7 39.1 33.5 22.4 3.9 7.9 14.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 76 24 0 100 3.8 6.5 7.6 48.8 39.1 26.3 5.1 9.4 15.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 73 27 0 100 3.1 5.1 7.0 45.8 39.9 28.3 3.8 7.5 12.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 74 26 0 100 3.1 5.5 6.7 49.9 41.5 28.3 3.9 7.3 11.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 78 22 0 100 2.7 4.4 5.7 37.7 36.6 26.7 3.8 7.1 11.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 71 29 0 100 4.5 6.6 7.2 43.5 36.8 28.2 5.4 11.6 20.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 81 19 0 100 1.8 2.1 3.0 21.7 28.2 18.3 2.8 5.8 10.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 71 29 0 100 2.8 4.1 6.0 38.4 36.9 27.4 3.5 6.7 11.0 30 Nis 06700G01 73 27 0 100 3.5 4.3 3.9 36.3 32.9 24.8 4.4 8.9 15.6 30 Palic 37000G16 74 26 0 100 4.7 8.7 9.0 54.6 41.9 29.4 6.1 11.4 18.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 75 25 0 100 3.3 4.0 4.2 35.3 31.3 24.5 4.4 8.8 15.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 74 26 0 100 5.2 9.7 9.3 55.4 42.4 29.1 6.7 12.6 20.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 81 19 0 100 2.9 4.3 5.0 34.0 31.6 20.9 4.5 9.9 18.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 69 31 0 100 3.2 3.8 4.5 39.9 34.2 26.0 3.5 8.2 15.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 78 22 0 100 3.0 4.0 4.7 35.2 31.9 25.1 4.3 8.6 14.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 74 26 0 100 3.8 6.6 7.5 48.4 38.6 28.6 4.9 10.8 19.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 78 22 0 100 3.1 3.6 4.5 28.2 29.4 22.2 4.4 9.4 16.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 72 28 0 100 2.6 5.1 7.6 55.0 43.4 30.0 3.2 6.7 12.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 81 19 0 100 2.7 3.2 4.3 29.4 29.0 21.1 4.1 9.5 17.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 80 20 0 100 2.0 2.9 4.0 26.6 31.4 20.7 3.0 6.0 10.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 73 27 0 100 6.9 12.7 9.5 56.1 42.2 31.3 8.8 16.5 27.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 78 22 0 100 3.2 4.0 3.7 31.7 29.9 23.0 4.6 8.8 14.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------