***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 01.09.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 05.09.2016.-02.10.2016. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 35 65 100 11.7 12.0 14.5 1.0 75.9 69.8 10.4 11.0 11.6 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 30 70 100 11.9 12.2 14.2 1.0 76.6 70.7 10.2 11.0 11.7 30 Becej 27400G00 0 33 67 100 13.9 14.2 14.6 1.0 75.5 69.7 12.5 13.1 13.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 34 66 100 9.5 10.0 11.9 1.1 77.8 71.6 7.9 8.7 9.4 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 35 65 100 10.7 11.1 12.3 0.9 76.1 69.5 9.2 9.9 10.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 39 61 100 9.7 10.0 10.0 0.9 75.8 69.3 8.5 9.1 9.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 34 66 100 11.9 12.1 14.3 1.0 74.5 68.9 10.6 11.2 11.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 32 68 100 5.6 6.0 10.2 0.9 77.6 71.2 4.2 4.9 5.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 30 70 100 11.8 12.0 12.5 0.9 75.5 69.0 10.4 11.0 11.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 32 68 100 11.5 11.7 11.0 0.9 76.1 69.7 10.1 10.7 11.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 35 65 100 11.0 11.3 11.9 0.9 77.1 70.2 9.7 10.3 10.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 34 66 100 9.8 10.1 11.0 0.9 76.8 70.7 8.5 9.1 9.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 39 61 100 10.4 10.6 10.4 0.8 72.6 67.3 9.1 9.7 10.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 38 62 100 12.0 12.2 12.3 0.8 72.5 67.2 10.8 11.4 11.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 28 72 100 12.2 12.5 13.4 1.1 79.1 72.9 10.8 11.4 12.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 35 65 100 11.8 12.1 11.2 0.9 75.9 69.6 10.5 11.1 11.7 30 Nis 06700G01 0 29 71 100 12.1 12.4 14.0 1.1 77.8 71.6 10.7 11.3 11.9 30 Palic 37000G16 0 36 64 100 10.4 10.6 10.4 0.8 74.0 68.5 8.9 9.6 10.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 28 72 100 11.9 12.2 14.3 1.1 77.9 71.8 10.4 11.1 11.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 33 67 100 6.5 6.7 8.5 0.8 74.5 69.1 5.2 5.8 6.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 36 64 100 11.3 11.6 13.8 0.9 74.2 68.0 10.0 10.6 11.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 26 74 100 11.2 11.4 14.1 1.0 76.6 70.9 9.8 10.4 11.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 28 72 100 11.5 11.9 14.3 1.1 79.2 72.8 9.8 10.6 11.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 37 63 100 11.4 11.6 12.3 0.8 73.9 68.4 10.2 10.8 11.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 36 64 100 11.9 12.3 13.4 1.1 77.1 70.7 10.4 11.1 11.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 38 62 100 10.6 10.6 9.9 0.7 70.1 65.3 9.4 9.9 10.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 34 66 100 12.3 12.8 13.9 1.1 77.0 70.8 10.5 11.3 12.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 33 67 100 10.3 10.6 12.2 1.0 77.5 71.0 8.9 9.5 10.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 35 65 100 9.5 9.8 9.8 0.8 74.0 68.7 8.0 8.7 9.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 35 65 100 12.2 12.5 14.4 1.0 75.1 69.5 10.7 11.4 12.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------