***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 29.08.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 16.09.2019.-22.09.2019. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 64 36 0 100 2.9 11.5 12.0 111.5 68.9 46.9 3.1 6.2 10.5 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 51 49 0 100 4.1 13.4 11.4 120.2 70.9 51.8 3.7 6.9 11.5 30 Becej 27400G00 57 43 0 100 3.9 13.6 11.9 113.0 69.2 49.7 3.8 7.3 12.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 57 43 0 100 3.9 13.6 11.8 102.8 67.2 47.9 3.7 7.5 13.1 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 53 47 0 100 3.1 12.1 12.5 115.0 70.1 50.3 2.7 5.7 10.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 75 25 100 8.7 9.9 11.4 91.2 63.7 46.4 3.5 6.4 10.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 52 48 0 100 4.2 13.8 11.1 114.9 69.6 49.3 3.8 7.3 12.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 54 46 0 100 5.9 21.2 13.3 111.1 68.7 50.2 5.3 10.9 19.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 56 44 0 100 3.7 14.8 12.8 114.3 69.9 50.1 3.4 7.2 12.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 56 44 0 100 4.3 14.9 14.1 115.1 69.9 51.3 4.1 7.9 13.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 55 45 0 100 3.1 12.5 11.6 111.1 69.2 49.4 2.8 6.0 11.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 54 46 0 100 3.5 11.4 11.0 105.5 67.5 47.9 3.1 6.3 10.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 55 45 0 100 3.4 11.3 11.0 98.4 65.8 46.1 3.1 6.4 11.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 75 25 100 13.4 20.2 15.8 120.7 71.1 54.4 4.3 9.2 16.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 62 38 0 100 2.5 9.5 9.2 86.4 62.8 43.4 2.5 5.6 10.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 53 47 0 100 2.9 9.6 11.2 102.7 67.2 48.6 2.6 5.3 9.2 30 Nis 06700G01 0 75 25 100 9.1 11.5 10.6 106.0 67.1 49.4 3.8 6.9 11.2 30 Palic 37000G16 60 40 0 100 4.0 17.7 15.9 121.8 71.3 53.1 3.8 8.1 14.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 51 49 0 100 3.6 13.4 11.7 119.6 70.7 52.5 3.1 6.4 11.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 56 44 0 100 4.9 20.0 18.1 123.0 71.5 51.4 4.5 9.4 16.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 58 42 0 100 3.7 16.4 12.3 113.8 69.6 49.5 3.2 7.6 14.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 55 45 0 100 3.9 12.0 11.5 102.7 66.1 50.4 3.6 7.1 12.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 76 24 100 9.4 13.6 12.1 116.2 70.0 52.5 3.3 6.7 11.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 56 44 0 100 4.3 18.9 14.4 118.9 70.6 53.0 3.7 8.4 15.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 59 41 0 100 3.7 13.2 12.7 108.6 68.4 46.1 3.7 7.2 12.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 54 46 0 100 3.6 11.4 11.2 108.7 68.8 45.6 3.4 6.3 10.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 61 39 0 100 3.2 13.5 12.6 111.3 69.0 45.7 3.2 6.8 12.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 54 46 0 100 3.1 10.1 10.7 94.7 65.1 46.9 2.6 5.7 10.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 58 42 0 100 6.2 25.9 16.8 123.4 71.6 53.6 6.0 12.2 21.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 53 47 0 100 3.1 12.4 11.5 117.3 70.2 50.0 2.6 5.8 10.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------