***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 29.08.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 23.09.2019.-29.09.2019. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 79 21 100 23.1 23.3 22.9 0.8 59.1 54.9 21.1 22.5 23.9 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 78 22 100 23.3 23.4 22.7 0.6 57.3 53.6 21.4 22.8 24.1 30 Becej 27400G00 0 79 21 100 23.5 23.6 23.1 0.6 57.3 53.3 21.5 23.0 24.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 80 20 100 16.4 17.1 21.0 1.1 63.5 58.3 14.3 15.9 17.3 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 79 21 100 23.9 24.0 21.4 0.6 57.0 53.5 21.8 23.4 24.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 82 18 100 22.8 23.4 19.7 1.0 61.6 57.9 20.8 22.4 23.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 78 22 100 22.9 23.0 22.6 0.6 57.7 53.9 21.0 22.4 23.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 80 20 100 12.7 12.7 20.1 0.5 55.9 52.9 10.7 12.2 13.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 79 21 100 23.6 23.7 21.8 0.7 57.7 53.9 21.4 23.0 24.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 79 21 100 23.2 23.3 20.7 0.7 57.8 54.1 20.9 22.6 24.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 80 20 100 23.6 23.6 21.4 0.5 55.4 52.6 21.5 23.1 24.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 80 20 100 23.0 22.9 21.2 0.5 55.6 52.8 20.8 22.4 23.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 81 19 100 23.8 24.0 20.6 0.7 57.3 54.5 21.7 23.3 24.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 55 45 0 100 20.9 23.1 21.1 0.2 52.0 49.9 21.3 22.9 24.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 80 20 100 23.6 24.2 21.8 1.1 63.7 58.6 21.7 23.1 24.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 82 18 100 24.4 24.7 21.2 0.8 58.6 55.2 22.4 23.9 25.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 76 24 100 22.6 22.6 22.3 0.6 57.0 53.6 20.7 22.0 23.3 30 Palic 37000G16 0 77 23 100 22.6 22.6 20.2 0.6 57.2 53.6 20.3 21.9 23.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 78 22 100 23.1 23.1 22.9 0.5 56.4 52.9 21.1 22.6 23.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 78 22 100 18.5 18.3 17.8 0.4 54.8 52.0 16.3 17.9 19.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 78 22 100 23.6 23.7 22.4 0.6 57.5 53.5 21.5 23.0 24.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 76 24 100 23.4 23.3 22.4 0.6 56.9 53.6 21.3 22.8 24.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 77 23 100 23.3 23.1 22.9 0.3 53.7 50.9 21.2 22.7 24.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 77 23 100 23.4 23.3 21.4 0.5 55.9 52.4 21.1 22.7 24.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 79 21 100 23.1 23.4 21.3 0.9 60.6 56.0 21.2 22.6 23.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 81 19 100 23.5 23.6 20.7 0.6 57.2 54.3 21.4 23.0 24.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 79 21 100 23.0 23.4 22.1 0.9 60.7 56.0 21.1 22.5 23.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 81 19 100 23.8 24.5 21.4 1.1 63.6 58.6 21.7 23.2 24.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 76 24 100 18.0 17.7 19.2 0.4 54.9 52.1 15.6 17.3 18.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 79 21 100 23.1 23.2 22.8 0.6 57.5 53.7 21.1 22.6 23.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------