***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 29.08.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 16.09.2013.-22.09.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 33 67 100 9999.0 25.4 24.5 1.5 68.5 64.2 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 32 68 100 25.0 24.9 24.4 1.7 69.3 64.6 21.5 23.1 24.6 30 Becej 27400G00 0 34 66 100 25.0 25.1 24.7 1.7 69.9 65.2 21.7 23.3 24.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 39 61 100 18.0 17.7 23.0 1.2 65.6 62.3 14.8 16.3 17.8 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 38 62 100 25.5 25.4 23.2 1.4 67.4 63.9 22.2 23.8 25.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 39 61 100 24.8 24.8 21.5 1.5 68.4 64.5 21.7 23.2 24.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 33 67 100 24.6 24.5 24.2 1.6 68.5 64.0 21.2 22.7 24.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 82 18 100 13.5 14.5 21.8 1.5 68.2 64.3 11.6 13.0 14.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 36 64 100 25.3 25.3 23.6 1.6 68.8 64.8 21.8 23.4 25.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 80 20 100 23.8 25.0 22.4 1.5 68.2 64.3 21.6 23.2 24.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 37 63 100 25.3 25.5 23.1 1.6 69.9 65.9 22.2 23.7 25.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 39 61 100 24.8 24.9 23.0 1.7 69.8 65.7 21.4 23.0 24.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 36 64 100 26.0 26.1 22.6 1.7 70.0 66.0 22.6 24.2 25.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 38 62 100 25.2 25.2 23.1 1.6 68.6 64.3 21.5 23.3 24.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 40 60 100 25.2 25.1 23.5 1.3 66.7 63.0 22.3 23.7 25.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 36 64 100 26.3 26.4 23.0 1.6 69.9 65.9 23.1 24.6 26.1 30 Nis 06700G01 0 34 66 100 24.1 24.2 24.0 1.7 69.8 64.9 20.8 22.3 23.8 30 Palic 37000G16 0 82 18 100 22.9 24.0 21.5 1.4 66.7 62.9 20.8 22.4 23.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 33 67 100 24.8 24.8 24.6 1.8 70.3 65.4 21.3 22.9 24.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 84 16 100 19.3 20.3 19.4 1.3 65.6 62.1 17.4 18.9 20.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 37 63 100 25.0 25.1 24.3 1.6 68.9 64.8 21.9 23.4 24.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 36 64 100 25.0 25.1 24.0 1.7 69.8 64.9 21.3 23.0 24.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 32 68 100 25.0 25.2 24.6 1.9 71.2 66.0 21.5 23.1 24.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 38 62 100 24.8 24.9 23.2 1.6 68.6 64.3 21.5 23.1 24.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 37 63 100 24.7 24.6 23.1 1.4 67.7 63.7 21.6 23.0 24.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 84 16 100 24.5 25.8 22.4 1.4 67.5 63.8 22.4 24.1 25.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 35 65 100 24.6 24.5 23.6 1.4 67.9 63.8 21.5 22.9 24.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 39 61 100 25.5 25.3 23.4 1.3 66.6 63.1 22.4 23.9 25.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 82 18 100 18.6 19.6 20.5 1.3 65.8 62.2 16.4 18.1 19.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 31 69 100 24.8 24.7 24.6 1.6 69.0 64.5 21.3 22.9 24.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------