***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 29.08.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 02.09.2013.-08.09.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 88 12 100 9999.0 26.4 25.2 0.4 55.3 54.8 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 86 14 100 25.1 25.7 25.5 0.8 60.1 59.3 23.1 24.7 26.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 86 14 100 25.1 25.8 25.9 1.0 62.6 61.4 23.2 24.7 26.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 91 9 100 17.7 17.8 23.4 0.3 53.4 53.1 16.1 17.5 18.8 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 88 12 100 25.6 26.0 24.4 0.8 59.3 58.4 23.8 25.2 26.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 90 10 100 24.4 24.7 22.0 0.6 56.8 55.9 22.8 24.2 25.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 86 14 100 24.8 25.1 25.1 0.6 56.8 56.3 22.8 24.4 25.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 87 13 100 13.9 14.5 22.7 0.9 61.2 60.0 12.2 13.6 14.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 87 13 100 25.2 25.9 25.3 1.0 62.1 60.9 23.3 24.8 26.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 87 13 100 24.8 25.5 23.6 1.0 62.0 60.8 23.1 24.5 25.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 87 13 100 25.3 25.9 24.3 0.9 60.3 59.3 23.5 25.0 26.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 87 13 100 24.7 25.3 23.8 1.0 61.8 60.6 22.9 24.3 25.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 87 13 100 25.7 26.3 23.9 1.0 61.7 60.5 24.1 25.4 26.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 86 14 100 24.9 25.9 24.8 1.2 64.9 63.2 23.0 24.6 26.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 92 8 100 25.5 25.2 24.6 -0.1 48.3 48.4 24.0 25.3 26.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 87 13 100 26.2 26.7 24.1 0.9 60.4 59.3 24.5 25.9 27.2 30 Nis 06700G01 0 86 14 100 24.5 25.2 25.1 1.0 62.0 61.0 22.6 24.1 25.5 30 Palic 37000G16 0 86 14 100 24.0 24.5 22.6 0.9 60.9 59.6 22.2 23.7 25.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 85 15 100 24.9 25.7 25.8 1.1 63.3 62.1 22.9 24.5 26.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 85 15 100 20.2 20.7 20.6 0.9 60.6 59.4 18.4 19.8 21.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 88 12 100 25.2 25.6 25.6 0.8 59.2 58.2 23.4 24.8 26.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 85 15 100 25.0 25.8 25.3 1.2 64.2 62.9 23.0 24.6 26.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 84 16 100 24.9 26.1 26.0 1.4 66.9 65.2 22.9 24.5 26.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 86 14 100 24.7 25.4 24.5 1.0 62.8 61.4 22.7 24.3 25.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 90 10 100 25.1 25.0 23.9 0.2 52.1 51.8 23.4 24.8 26.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 86 14 100 25.3 25.7 23.2 0.7 59.0 58.0 23.7 25.0 26.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 88 12 100 25.0 25.0 24.4 0.3 53.6 53.3 23.2 24.7 26.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 91 9 100 25.6 25.5 24.1 0.2 52.3 52.0 24.1 25.4 26.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 85 15 100 19.6 20.1 21.8 0.9 60.6 59.4 17.7 19.2 20.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 86 14 100 24.9 25.4 25.6 0.7 59.1 58.4 23.0 24.5 26.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------