***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 27.08.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 31.08.2015.-27.09.2015. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 82 18 100 24.2 24.2 24.7 0.3 56.3 54.7 22.9 23.9 24.8 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 80 20 100 24.4 24.1 24.6 0.0 49.7 49.1 23.1 24.1 25.0 30 Becej 27400G00 0 81 19 100 24.5 24.3 24.6 0.1 52.6 51.7 23.2 24.2 25.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 81 19 100 17.4 17.3 22.8 0.2 54.4 53.6 16.0 17.1 18.1 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 82 18 100 25.0 25.2 23.3 0.5 59.2 57.2 23.7 24.7 25.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 41 59 100 24.7 24.8 21.7 1.0 69.0 65.3 22.7 23.7 24.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 81 19 100 24.1 23.7 24.4 0.0 49.5 48.9 22.8 23.7 24.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 39 61 100 14.2 14.4 22.1 1.1 70.9 66.7 12.4 13.3 14.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 83 17 100 24.6 24.9 23.7 0.6 60.5 58.2 23.3 24.3 25.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 83 17 100 24.3 24.9 22.6 0.9 65.9 62.7 22.9 24.0 25.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 82 18 100 24.7 25.3 23.2 0.8 65.3 62.1 23.5 24.4 25.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 40 60 100 24.8 25.1 23.3 1.2 71.7 67.5 22.7 23.7 24.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 43 57 100 25.7 25.9 22.9 1.1 69.3 65.7 23.8 24.8 25.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 80 20 100 24.5 24.1 22.7 0.0 49.3 49.2 23.1 24.1 25.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 79 21 100 25.0 24.9 23.7 0.3 55.4 54.7 23.7 24.6 25.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 82 18 100 25.6 26.3 23.2 0.9 66.5 63.2 24.3 25.3 26.2 30 Nis 06700G01 0 77 23 100 23.7 22.7 23.6 -0.6 39.9 41.1 22.3 23.3 24.2 30 Palic 37000G16 0 83 17 100 23.4 23.8 21.6 0.6 61.2 58.8 22.2 23.2 24.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 80 20 100 24.2 24.0 24.7 0.1 51.8 51.0 22.9 23.9 24.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 82 18 100 19.6 20.3 20.0 0.9 67.3 63.7 18.4 19.3 20.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 84 16 100 24.6 24.7 24.4 0.4 57.4 55.7 23.4 24.3 25.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 76 24 100 24.3 23.4 23.6 -0.5 41.1 42.4 22.9 23.9 24.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 81 19 100 24.3 24.3 24.6 0.3 55.1 53.7 23.0 24.0 24.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 82 18 100 24.2 24.1 22.9 0.2 53.6 52.7 22.9 23.9 24.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 83 17 100 24.4 24.4 23.2 0.3 55.9 54.6 23.1 24.1 25.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 43 57 100 25.5 25.6 22.9 1.0 68.8 65.2 23.5 24.5 25.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 82 18 100 24.3 24.3 23.9 0.4 56.7 55.1 23.0 24.0 24.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 80 20 100 25.1 25.1 23.4 0.4 57.1 55.9 23.7 24.7 25.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 82 18 100 18.9 19.2 20.8 0.6 61.2 58.7 17.7 18.6 19.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 82 18 100 24.2 24.1 24.8 0.2 52.9 51.8 22.9 23.9 24.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------