***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 27.08.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 21.09.2015.-27.09.2015. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 78 22 100 11.1 10.9 13.5 0.2 53.9 52.7 9.8 10.7 11.6 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 76 24 100 11.4 11.1 13.3 0.1 52.2 51.2 9.9 11.0 11.9 30 Becej 27400G00 0 77 23 100 13.4 13.1 13.3 0.1 51.5 51.3 12.1 13.0 13.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 76 24 100 9.1 8.7 10.9 0.1 51.9 51.3 7.5 8.6 9.7 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 77 23 100 10.2 10.0 10.7 0.2 53.2 52.6 8.7 9.8 10.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 81 19 100 9.2 9.3 9.2 0.4 58.0 56.9 7.9 8.9 9.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 75 25 100 11.5 11.2 13.3 0.1 52.6 51.4 10.2 11.1 11.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 77 23 100 5.4 5.7 9.5 0.6 61.1 58.5 4.0 5.0 6.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 77 23 100 11.1 10.9 11.2 0.2 54.3 53.5 9.6 10.7 11.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 77 23 100 10.8 10.9 9.9 0.4 57.6 55.8 9.6 10.5 11.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 78 22 100 10.4 10.4 10.4 0.3 56.8 55.3 9.0 10.0 10.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 78 22 100 9.5 9.7 10.4 0.5 60.4 58.4 8.1 9.1 10.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 82 18 100 9.9 10.1 9.7 0.4 58.2 57.3 8.6 9.6 10.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 76 24 100 11.4 11.2 11.3 0.1 51.3 51.3 10.3 11.1 11.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 77 23 100 11.2 11.0 11.6 0.2 53.9 52.7 10.0 10.8 11.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 81 19 100 11.2 11.2 10.1 0.3 55.9 55.1 10.1 10.9 11.8 30 Nis 06700G01 51 49 0 100 9.9 11.1 12.7 0.0 50.7 50.1 10.1 11.0 11.9 30 Palic 37000G16 0 78 22 100 9.8 9.7 9.4 0.3 55.6 54.7 8.4 9.4 10.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 76 24 100 11.3 11.1 13.2 0.1 52.3 51.5 10.1 11.0 11.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 79 21 100 6.1 6.1 7.9 0.4 56.7 55.4 5.0 5.8 6.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 78 22 100 10.9 10.7 12.5 0.2 53.0 52.5 9.4 10.5 11.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 54 46 0 100 9.0 10.1 12.6 0.0 49.5 49.3 9.2 10.1 10.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 76 24 100 10.9 10.6 12.9 0.1 52.3 51.7 9.5 10.5 11.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 77 23 100 10.8 10.5 11.2 0.1 52.5 52.4 9.6 10.4 11.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 77 23 100 11.6 11.4 12.0 0.2 54.0 52.8 10.1 11.2 12.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 78 22 100 10.1 10.1 9.9 0.3 56.4 55.8 9.0 9.8 10.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 78 22 100 11.9 11.8 12.7 0.3 55.3 53.6 10.0 11.4 12.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 78 22 100 9.7 9.4 11.1 0.1 52.6 52.0 8.2 9.3 10.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 78 22 100 9.1 9.1 8.9 0.3 55.5 54.6 7.7 8.7 9.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 76 24 100 11.7 11.4 13.5 0.1 52.5 51.6 10.1 11.2 12.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------