***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 25.08.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 29.08.2016.-25.09.2016. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 57 43 0 100 24.9 35.0 28.3 72.3 44.2 38.0 25.7 40.5 59.3 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 54 46 0 100 30.3 39.5 27.0 73.7 45.2 39.2 31.0 42.9 56.6 30 Becej 27400G00 55 45 0 100 28.2 40.8 30.7 78.3 47.7 40.8 28.6 43.1 60.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 54 46 0 100 28.0 44.4 32.5 77.9 49.5 41.1 27.6 45.1 66.9 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 56 44 0 100 24.5 37.0 31.5 77.2 48.4 40.6 25.1 38.3 54.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 58 42 0 100 21.4 33.8 36.0 77.8 48.0 41.2 22.4 35.4 52.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 58 42 0 100 26.8 34.8 26.0 69.0 42.0 36.5 28.3 40.7 55.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 51 49 0 100 45.4 68.3 38.0 86.9 51.9 44.7 44.7 65.9 91.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 76 24 100 47.7 41.8 35.5 83.3 51.3 43.2 28.4 40.6 55.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 76 24 100 51.2 44.6 40.3 86.6 51.8 44.4 28.7 42.8 59.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 57 43 0 100 23.5 35.1 31.2 77.9 48.0 40.8 24.3 36.8 51.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 58 42 0 100 25.0 38.7 30.3 80.7 49.4 42.0 26.2 39.3 55.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 58 42 0 100 20.6 32.5 30.1 73.5 47.6 40.5 21.2 34.6 51.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 51 49 0 100 38.9 57.9 40.9 87.2 52.0 45.2 38.4 55.8 76.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 60 40 0 100 16.0 29.7 30.4 81.4 52.8 42.1 17.0 27.7 41.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 56 44 0 100 18.6 28.8 29.8 74.2 47.2 39.8 18.7 31.3 48.0 30 Nis 06700G01 60 40 0 100 26.7 34.6 25.7 67.3 41.4 36.0 28.7 40.8 54.9 30 Palic 37000G16 0 76 24 100 57.1 48.8 44.9 87.6 50.9 44.2 32.2 47.9 66.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 54 46 0 100 30.4 42.9 28.8 78.3 48.1 41.3 31.1 44.5 60.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 78 22 100 66.4 60.4 48.7 91.7 53.3 46.1 37.5 56.2 78.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 51 49 0 100 27.1 40.2 32.2 79.4 49.5 42.0 26.5 40.5 57.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 60 40 0 100 29.8 42.3 29.1 74.7 46.3 39.6 32.0 45.4 61.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 55 45 0 100 32.0 44.4 30.7 81.5 49.3 42.1 33.2 44.6 57.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 51 49 0 100 34.2 49.6 38.7 83.3 49.4 42.6 33.8 50.2 69.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 54 46 0 100 25.3 38.1 32.4 76.3 47.8 40.9 25.1 40.3 59.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 55 45 0 100 20.7 30.5 27.8 75.4 47.3 40.9 20.8 32.8 47.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 57 43 0 100 24.5 35.6 30.2 73.5 45.1 39.0 25.5 40.3 58.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 59 41 0 100 19.1 31.5 31.3 79.8 51.0 41.3 20.3 30.7 43.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 75 25 100 88.2 76.0 46.9 89.0 51.2 44.4 50.9 74.0 101.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 54 46 0 100 27.2 36.9 27.6 74.3 45.4 39.2 27.7 40.3 55.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------