***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 25.08.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 05.09.2016.-11.09.2016. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 80 20 100 24.8 25.9 25.7 1.2 67.9 63.2 22.5 24.2 25.7 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 36 64 100 26.2 26.3 26.2 1.4 69.5 64.6 22.9 24.5 25.9 30 Becej 27400G00 0 40 60 100 25.9 26.0 26.1 1.3 68.8 63.9 22.8 24.3 25.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 34 66 100 18.8 19.4 23.9 1.8 75.2 67.9 15.4 17.0 18.5 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 34 66 100 26.4 26.7 24.7 1.7 72.0 65.9 23.0 24.6 26.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 34 66 100 25.3 25.6 22.2 1.7 72.3 66.8 22.0 23.5 25.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 39 61 100 25.8 25.9 25.9 1.3 68.7 64.3 22.5 24.1 25.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 34 66 100 14.8 15.0 22.6 1.6 70.7 64.8 11.7 13.1 14.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 31 69 100 26.2 26.4 25.2 1.7 72.3 66.1 22.7 24.3 25.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 34 66 100 25.6 25.7 23.4 1.6 70.2 64.4 22.3 23.9 25.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 33 67 100 26.2 26.5 24.8 1.8 73.1 66.7 22.8 24.4 25.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 34 66 100 25.4 25.8 23.9 1.8 72.8 66.5 22.1 23.7 25.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 32 68 100 26.4 26.7 24.1 1.8 72.7 66.9 23.1 24.6 26.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 80 20 100 24.7 25.6 24.3 1.2 65.9 61.4 22.8 24.2 25.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 31 69 100 26.6 27.3 26.0 2.0 77.4 70.1 23.5 24.9 26.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 32 68 100 27.0 27.5 24.5 1.9 74.5 68.0 23.6 25.2 26.6 30 Nis 06700G01 0 32 68 100 25.5 25.8 26.0 1.6 72.7 67.1 22.2 23.7 25.1 30 Palic 37000G16 0 36 64 100 24.8 24.7 22.4 1.4 68.0 62.8 21.6 23.1 24.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 36 64 100 25.9 26.1 26.4 1.5 71.4 65.7 22.7 24.2 25.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 31 69 100 21.2 21.1 20.4 1.5 69.3 64.2 17.7 19.3 20.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 40 60 100 26.0 26.1 25.7 1.4 69.2 63.9 22.8 24.4 25.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 34 66 100 25.9 26.1 26.0 1.6 71.7 66.0 22.7 24.2 25.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 35 65 100 26.0 26.5 26.5 1.8 74.7 67.9 22.8 24.3 25.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 39 61 100 25.4 25.5 24.4 1.4 68.7 63.4 22.4 23.8 25.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 37 63 100 26.1 26.2 24.5 1.4 69.7 64.4 22.8 24.3 25.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 33 67 100 26.1 26.3 23.3 1.7 72.0 66.7 23.0 24.4 25.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 40 60 100 25.9 26.0 25.1 1.3 69.2 64.2 22.7 24.2 25.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 33 67 100 26.5 27.1 24.9 2.0 76.2 68.9 23.4 24.8 26.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 37 63 100 20.2 20.1 21.6 1.4 67.5 62.5 17.1 18.6 20.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 78 22 100 24.8 25.8 26.0 1.2 67.0 62.7 22.7 24.2 25.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------