***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 24.08.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 18.09.2017.-24.09.2017. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 75 25 100 9.2 10.6 10.8 92.4 64.0 45.9 3.3 6.5 11.3 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 53 47 0 100 3.9 10.6 10.3 93.2 64.0 48.3 3.5 6.8 11.4 30 Becej 27400G00 53 47 0 100 4.9 13.5 11.1 99.8 66.2 47.2 4.6 8.3 13.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 60 40 0 100 3.2 10.3 9.7 87.6 63.0 42.3 3.1 6.5 11.5 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 58 42 0 100 2.4 8.1 9.9 92.8 64.4 43.7 2.2 4.8 8.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 63 37 0 100 3.3 9.0 10.4 85.6 61.7 42.4 3.6 6.4 10.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 54 46 0 100 4.0 10.8 10.1 90.6 62.9 47.4 3.7 7.2 11.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 76 24 100 11.3 13.5 11.6 94.2 64.4 48.2 3.6 7.9 14.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 53 47 0 100 3.1 9.9 10.3 93.2 64.4 43.9 2.7 5.7 10.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 51 49 0 100 3.9 10.9 11.8 93.4 64.2 47.0 3.3 6.7 11.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 57 43 0 100 2.7 8.6 9.5 90.7 63.7 44.7 2.5 5.2 9.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 53 47 0 100 3.1 8.4 9.8 94.8 64.7 46.4 2.9 5.3 8.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 63 37 0 100 3.0 10.1 9.9 90.3 63.5 45.1 3.3 6.4 10.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 59 41 0 100 4.9 17.5 13.3 104.0 67.1 47.4 4.8 9.7 17.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 59 41 0 100 2.3 7.6 7.7 76.9 60.2 39.5 2.1 4.9 9.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 63 37 0 100 2.3 7.5 9.3 88.5 63.1 43.3 2.5 4.8 8.2 30 Nis 06700G01 59 41 0 100 3.1 9.3 10.1 95.2 63.9 48.2 3.0 5.9 10.0 30 Palic 37000G16 55 45 0 100 3.8 13.0 13.3 97.8 65.1 49.0 3.2 7.3 13.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 53 47 0 100 3.6 11.1 10.5 96.2 64.9 47.6 3.1 6.5 11.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 76 24 100 10.9 13.4 14.8 96.6 65.0 51.5 3.2 7.3 14.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 56 44 0 100 4.2 13.8 10.5 96.4 65.5 44.7 3.9 8.0 14.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 61 39 0 100 3.5 10.5 10.4 94.9 63.8 47.4 3.6 6.8 11.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 55 45 0 100 4.1 12.7 10.9 101.6 66.4 46.5 3.8 7.4 12.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 54 46 0 100 4.8 15.7 12.4 102.6 66.7 47.8 4.3 8.8 15.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 54 46 0 100 3.8 10.3 10.9 91.5 64.2 45.1 3.6 6.7 10.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 61 39 0 100 3.0 9.1 9.2 85.1 62.2 42.0 3.0 6.0 10.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 51 49 0 100 3.5 9.8 11.2 92.5 64.3 46.7 3.1 6.1 10.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 59 41 0 100 2.4 7.6 8.9 84.6 62.3 41.6 2.3 4.8 8.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 52 48 0 100 6.4 20.4 13.7 97.4 64.8 50.4 5.5 11.7 21.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 51 49 0 100 3.0 9.0 10.8 94.7 64.7 48.5 2.5 5.3 9.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------