***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 24.08.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 04.09.2017.-10.09.2017. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 78 22 100 12.0 12.5 16.0 0.8 65.0 59.8 10.8 11.7 12.5 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 76 24 100 12.1 12.4 15.6 0.6 62.2 57.9 10.7 11.7 12.6 30 Becej 27400G00 0 41 59 100 14.9 15.0 16.3 0.9 68.7 63.2 12.9 13.9 14.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 41 59 100 10.3 10.6 13.7 1.0 70.7 65.4 8.0 9.2 10.2 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 81 19 100 10.8 11.5 14.1 0.9 68.4 63.5 9.6 10.5 11.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 38 62 100 10.7 10.9 11.8 1.0 71.3 66.2 8.9 9.8 10.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 78 22 100 12.2 12.6 15.9 0.8 65.4 60.1 11.1 11.9 12.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 39 61 100 6.2 6.2 11.7 0.8 67.0 63.0 4.2 5.2 6.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 40 60 100 12.5 12.7 14.2 1.0 70.4 64.8 10.8 11.7 12.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 39 61 100 12.3 12.2 12.5 0.8 67.4 62.8 10.6 11.4 12.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 80 20 100 11.4 12.0 13.5 0.8 67.9 63.2 10.3 11.1 11.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 37 63 100 10.5 10.6 12.7 1.0 70.7 65.8 8.8 9.6 10.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 38 62 100 11.4 11.3 12.3 0.7 66.0 62.1 9.7 10.5 11.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 37 63 100 13.2 13.3 14.1 0.9 70.9 65.0 11.4 12.2 13.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 36 64 100 13.3 13.7 15.4 1.2 74.9 68.9 11.7 12.5 13.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 37 63 100 12.9 12.9 13.1 0.9 69.2 64.6 11.1 12.0 12.8 30 Nis 06700G01 0 76 24 100 12.6 12.8 15.3 0.6 62.1 57.8 11.5 12.3 13.0 30 Palic 37000G16 0 35 65 100 11.4 11.5 12.0 0.9 70.5 65.5 9.3 10.3 11.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 78 22 100 12.2 12.6 15.8 0.7 65.0 60.2 11.0 11.8 12.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 36 64 100 7.6 7.6 10.1 0.8 68.9 64.7 5.5 6.5 7.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 41 59 100 12.2 12.1 15.3 0.8 66.8 62.0 10.4 11.3 12.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 78 22 100 11.7 12.0 15.5 0.7 64.4 60.1 10.7 11.4 12.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 40 60 100 12.2 12.4 16.0 1.0 71.2 64.9 10.4 11.2 12.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 37 63 100 12.6 12.8 14.1 1.0 72.6 66.5 10.9 11.7 12.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 80 20 100 12.0 12.4 14.9 0.7 63.3 59.0 10.8 11.7 12.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 40 60 100 11.6 11.8 12.1 1.0 70.5 65.6 10.0 10.8 11.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 79 21 100 12.5 13.0 15.4 0.7 63.4 58.6 10.7 12.0 13.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 36 64 100 11.1 11.4 14.2 1.1 73.9 68.2 9.5 10.2 11.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 38 62 100 10.3 10.3 11.2 0.8 68.2 63.7 8.2 9.2 10.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 77 23 100 12.5 12.9 16.0 0.7 64.4 59.7 11.2 12.1 13.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------