***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 23.08.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 17.09.2012.-23.09.2012. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 71 29 0 100 9999.0 12.6 6.9 90.8 63.8 38.4 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 65 35 0 100 3.4 11.3 6.6 90.2 63.8 39.4 3.7 7.2 12.1 30 Becej 27400G00 65 35 0 100 3.7 12.0 6.7 87.4 62.6 39.5 4.2 7.9 13.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 58 42 0 100 4.1 14.6 7.4 103.5 67.0 43.7 3.9 8.1 14.0 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 61 39 0 100 2.6 9.7 6.8 94.2 64.2 42.4 2.6 5.6 10.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 59 41 0 100 3.4 12.3 10.0 118.6 70.7 49.5 3.4 6.4 10.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 66 34 0 100 3.6 12.4 6.7 92.9 64.7 39.2 4.1 7.8 12.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 64 36 0 100 4.5 15.0 7.4 87.4 61.2 41.6 4.7 10.0 17.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 61 39 0 100 3.2 10.2 6.5 82.9 60.5 40.3 3.2 6.8 12.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 62 38 0 100 3.7 10.3 7.2 82.4 59.8 41.2 3.8 7.5 12.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 63 37 0 100 2.7 10.0 6.0 93.5 63.8 41.7 2.7 5.8 10.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 66 34 0 100 2.7 9.3 6.0 93.6 63.6 40.7 2.9 5.9 10.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 63 37 0 100 3.1 12.0 7.5 104.7 67.0 44.6 3.2 6.5 11.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 60 40 0 100 4.3 13.8 7.8 83.6 60.3 41.0 4.1 9.2 17.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 65 35 0 100 2.5 11.7 6.6 103.8 67.3 41.7 2.6 5.9 11.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 62 38 0 100 2.5 9.6 6.9 104.5 66.9 43.2 2.6 5.3 9.3 30 Nis 06700G01 68 32 0 100 3.5 10.8 6.2 89.4 63.4 39.1 4.0 7.3 11.6 30 Palic 37000G16 60 40 0 100 3.5 10.0 8.3 78.5 57.6 40.4 3.4 7.4 13.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 65 35 0 100 3.2 11.0 6.3 86.6 62.5 39.4 3.4 7.1 12.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 61 39 0 100 4.1 13.1 10.8 88.3 61.3 43.1 4.1 8.6 15.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 61 39 0 100 3.6 12.1 6.3 85.6 61.5 39.0 3.4 7.8 14.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 68 32 0 100 2.9 10.1 6.0 84.9 61.3 38.9 3.3 6.7 11.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 61 39 0 100 3.4 10.5 6.1 81.7 60.8 39.7 3.4 7.1 12.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 61 39 0 100 4.0 12.5 7.4 80.5 59.0 40.1 3.7 8.6 16.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 62 38 0 100 3.5 12.0 7.9 95.2 64.8 42.0 3.6 7.2 12.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 56 44 0 100 3.8 10.5 6.3 92.3 64.4 43.5 3.6 6.8 11.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 67 33 0 100 3.0 12.1 7.9 94.6 64.9 40.7 3.4 7.1 12.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 62 38 0 100 2.7 11.5 7.0 104.6 67.3 42.9 2.6 5.9 10.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 62 38 0 100 5.5 15.7 9.0 80.0 58.3 41.2 5.5 11.6 20.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 68 32 0 100 2.2 9.6 6.8 91.4 64.1 39.2 2.4 5.5 10.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------