***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 23.08.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 27.08.2012.-02.09.2012. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 84 16 100 9999.0 27.4 27.1 0.9 62.8 60.4 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 86 14 100 26.4 27.2 27.1 1.0 63.4 61.0 24.6 26.1 27.4 30 Becej 27400G00 0 85 15 100 26.5 27.2 27.2 0.9 63.1 60.8 24.7 26.1 27.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 86 14 100 19.7 20.0 25.2 0.6 58.6 57.0 17.9 19.3 20.6 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 84 16 100 27.2 27.6 25.8 0.7 59.5 57.8 25.4 26.8 28.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 83 17 100 26.2 27.1 24.0 1.1 67.3 64.0 24.5 25.8 27.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 86 14 100 26.1 26.8 26.8 0.9 62.1 59.9 24.4 25.8 27.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 85 15 100 15.6 16.1 24.2 0.9 61.8 59.7 13.9 15.2 16.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 84 16 100 26.6 27.2 26.6 0.9 62.1 60.0 24.8 26.2 27.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 85 15 100 26.6 27.2 24.9 0.9 62.1 59.9 24.7 26.2 27.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 84 16 100 27.0 27.5 25.6 0.8 61.1 59.1 25.1 26.5 27.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 85 15 100 26.4 27.1 25.3 0.9 62.6 60.4 24.6 26.0 27.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 84 16 100 27.4 28.3 25.4 1.1 65.2 62.5 25.5 27.0 28.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 83 17 100 26.4 27.3 26.0 1.1 64.4 61.9 24.5 26.0 27.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 86 14 100 27.3 27.8 27.1 0.8 61.5 59.4 25.8 27.0 28.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 84 16 100 28.0 28.8 25.7 1.0 64.0 61.5 26.1 27.6 28.9 30 Nis 06700G01 0 87 13 100 25.7 26.5 26.6 1.0 64.3 61.9 23.9 25.3 26.7 30 Palic 37000G16 0 83 17 100 25.6 26.1 24.0 0.9 61.4 59.1 23.8 25.2 26.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 86 14 100 26.2 27.2 27.3 1.2 66.0 63.3 24.4 25.9 27.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 83 17 100 21.8 22.4 22.3 0.9 62.5 60.0 20.0 21.4 22.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 82 18 100 26.7 26.9 26.8 0.5 57.4 56.0 24.8 26.3 27.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 87 13 100 26.1 27.1 26.7 1.1 65.1 62.6 24.3 25.8 27.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 44 56 100 27.3 27.6 27.5 1.5 70.0 66.8 24.5 25.9 27.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 84 16 100 26.1 26.8 25.7 0.9 62.6 60.3 24.2 25.7 27.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 82 18 100 26.8 26.9 25.6 0.5 56.7 55.2 24.9 26.3 27.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 83 17 100 27.1 27.7 24.9 0.9 62.6 60.6 25.4 26.7 28.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 83 17 100 26.4 26.7 26.1 0.6 58.7 56.9 24.6 26.0 27.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 85 15 100 27.4 27.7 26.1 0.6 59.4 57.7 25.8 27.0 28.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 82 18 100 21.1 21.6 23.2 0.8 61.4 59.0 19.3 20.7 22.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 87 13 100 26.3 27.0 27.2 0.9 62.9 60.6 24.5 26.0 27.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------