***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 23.08.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 03.09.2012.-09.09.2012. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 77 23 100 9999.0 13.5 15.8 0.7 63.4 59.5 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 78 22 100 12.2 12.8 15.8 0.8 67.1 62.6 10.8 11.8 12.7 30 Becej 27400G00 0 77 23 100 14.5 15.0 15.8 0.8 66.5 61.8 13.1 14.1 15.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 78 22 100 9.7 10.1 13.9 0.6 62.2 59.2 8.1 9.3 10.3 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 77 23 100 11.1 11.4 13.7 0.6 62.5 59.3 9.7 10.7 11.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 38 62 100 10.8 10.7 12.3 0.9 67.6 63.1 9.0 9.9 10.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 37 63 100 13.0 12.9 15.8 0.8 66.2 62.0 11.2 12.1 12.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 76 24 100 5.7 5.8 11.9 0.5 59.9 57.1 4.2 5.2 6.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 78 22 100 12.2 12.6 14.1 0.7 63.8 60.3 11.0 11.9 12.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 77 23 100 12.0 12.2 12.5 0.6 61.2 58.4 10.8 11.7 12.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 77 23 100 11.7 12.0 13.3 0.8 64.8 60.8 10.5 11.3 12.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 77 23 100 10.1 10.3 12.8 0.7 62.7 59.2 8.9 9.7 10.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 80 20 100 11.0 11.4 12.4 0.8 64.8 60.9 9.9 10.7 11.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 38 62 100 13.4 13.3 14.1 0.8 67.0 62.7 11.5 12.4 13.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 80 20 100 12.9 13.4 15.0 0.9 68.0 63.7 11.9 12.6 13.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 78 22 100 12.5 12.9 13.1 0.8 65.3 61.1 11.3 12.1 12.9 30 Nis 06700G01 0 36 64 100 13.3 13.2 15.3 0.8 66.6 62.9 11.5 12.4 13.2 30 Palic 37000G16 0 78 22 100 10.8 11.0 11.8 0.5 59.9 57.4 9.5 10.4 11.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 37 63 100 13.0 13.0 15.8 0.9 68.8 63.8 11.2 12.0 12.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 76 24 100 7.0 6.9 10.1 0.3 55.0 53.2 5.7 6.6 7.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 77 23 100 11.8 12.1 15.0 0.7 62.7 59.3 10.6 11.5 12.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 32 68 100 12.4 12.4 15.5 1.0 69.4 65.0 10.8 11.5 12.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 38 62 100 12.4 12.5 15.7 1.1 71.1 65.5 10.5 11.4 12.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 78 22 100 12.2 12.6 13.9 0.8 65.5 61.4 11.0 11.8 12.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 78 22 100 12.2 12.7 14.4 0.8 64.4 60.5 10.9 11.9 12.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 80 20 100 11.2 11.5 12.5 0.6 61.4 58.5 10.1 10.9 11.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 78 22 100 12.7 13.3 15.1 0.8 64.3 60.4 10.8 12.2 13.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 79 21 100 10.7 11.0 14.3 0.7 63.6 60.1 9.7 10.4 11.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 76 24 100 9.8 9.9 11.2 0.4 58.8 56.3 8.3 9.3 10.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 77 23 100 12.7 13.2 16.0 0.8 66.6 62.0 11.3 12.3 13.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------