***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 22.08.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 09.09.2019.-15.09.2019. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 37 63 100 26.3 26.3 26.6 1.5 68.3 63.3 23.1 24.6 26.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 37 63 100 26.2 25.8 26.2 1.2 63.8 60.0 23.2 24.7 26.0 30 Becej 27400G00 0 39 61 100 26.2 26.0 26.8 1.4 66.3 62.1 23.3 24.7 26.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 32 68 100 19.7 20.6 25.4 2.5 77.9 71.6 16.1 17.7 19.3 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 36 64 100 26.9 26.9 25.3 1.7 69.2 64.8 23.6 25.2 26.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 34 66 100 25.9 26.3 23.3 2.0 72.9 68.4 22.4 24.0 25.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 31 69 100 26.0 25.5 26.2 1.2 64.9 60.6 22.9 24.3 25.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 35 65 100 15.2 15.0 23.8 1.5 66.6 63.0 12.2 13.6 14.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 35 65 100 26.5 26.5 25.6 1.8 69.7 65.1 23.3 24.8 26.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 35 65 100 26.1 26.1 24.5 1.8 69.5 64.9 23.0 24.5 25.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 40 60 100 26.4 26.3 25.1 1.5 66.2 62.6 23.4 24.9 26.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 36 64 100 25.9 25.5 25.1 1.4 65.6 62.5 22.5 24.1 25.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 33 67 100 27.0 26.7 24.3 1.6 67.6 64.3 23.6 25.1 26.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 77 23 100 25.2 25.4 24.3 0.9 60.3 57.8 23.3 24.6 25.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 29 71 100 27.1 27.7 26.3 2.4 77.2 71.4 23.9 25.3 26.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 35 65 100 27.5 27.6 25.0 1.8 70.0 66.0 24.1 25.7 27.2 30 Nis 06700G01 0 37 63 100 25.2 24.8 25.8 1.1 63.6 59.6 22.3 23.7 25.0 30 Palic 37000G16 0 33 67 100 25.2 25.0 23.6 1.6 67.4 63.3 22.2 23.6 24.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 76 24 100 25.0 25.5 26.4 1.1 63.1 59.6 23.0 24.4 25.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 37 63 100 21.3 20.9 21.1 1.3 64.5 61.4 18.3 19.7 21.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 39 61 100 26.5 26.6 26.2 1.6 68.6 64.1 23.6 25.0 26.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 76 24 100 24.9 25.3 25.6 1.0 61.9 58.4 23.0 24.3 25.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 79 21 100 25.0 25.4 26.4 1.0 61.4 58.5 23.2 24.5 25.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 36 64 100 25.9 25.6 24.9 1.4 65.6 61.9 23.0 24.4 25.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 32 68 100 26.5 26.8 25.3 1.9 73.0 67.2 23.3 24.7 26.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 35 65 100 26.6 26.5 24.7 1.6 67.4 64.2 23.4 24.9 26.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 35 65 100 26.2 26.4 25.9 1.7 70.9 65.3 23.2 24.6 26.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 31 69 100 27.1 27.8 25.7 2.4 77.3 71.5 23.8 25.3 26.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 37 63 100 20.6 20.2 22.4 1.3 64.3 61.1 17.7 19.1 20.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 38 62 100 26.0 25.7 26.4 1.2 64.6 60.6 23.1 24.5 25.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------