***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 20.08.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 14.09.2020.-20.09.2020. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 74 26 0 100 3.6 14.8 8.6 88.9 62.8 38.5 4.8 9.5 16.3 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 70 30 0 100 3.8 13.3 8.7 87.8 62.5 38.1 4.6 8.9 14.9 30 Becej 27400G00 67 33 0 100 3.9 13.9 9.2 93.2 63.6 38.7 4.4 8.8 15.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 63 37 0 100 4.1 15.7 11.0 102.1 67.4 41.4 4.2 8.6 15.0 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 60 40 0 100 3.8 14.1 10.5 105.4 67.9 43.4 3.7 7.6 13.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 59 41 0 100 3.6 12.3 11.4 101.0 66.7 46.7 3.4 7.0 12.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 69 31 0 100 3.9 13.4 8.7 90.0 62.9 38.3 4.6 8.8 14.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 63 37 0 100 5.8 19.9 10.9 96.9 64.7 45.0 6.1 12.1 20.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 62 38 0 100 4.5 16.9 10.5 105.3 67.2 43.0 4.6 9.3 16.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 62 38 0 100 4.9 14.8 11.5 100.0 65.6 44.0 5.2 9.4 15.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 62 38 0 100 4.2 13.0 9.5 98.0 65.7 43.4 4.5 8.1 13.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 64 36 0 100 4.2 11.9 8.5 88.8 62.5 42.6 4.6 8.3 13.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 57 43 0 100 4.4 13.9 10.3 99.9 66.4 45.7 4.2 8.1 13.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 59 41 0 100 5.6 16.8 11.7 87.6 61.2 40.8 5.3 11.2 20.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 67 33 0 100 2.6 13.9 11.1 120.6 72.2 40.8 2.8 6.2 11.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 61 39 0 100 3.0 10.5 10.1 99.0 66.0 43.9 3.0 6.0 10.5 30 Nis 06700G01 67 33 0 100 3.7 11.9 8.4 86.9 61.8 38.4 4.2 8.1 13.7 30 Palic 37000G16 61 39 0 100 5.4 17.6 12.4 97.7 64.4 44.0 5.6 10.9 18.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 68 32 0 100 4.1 13.6 8.8 88.1 62.5 38.9 4.8 9.1 15.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 59 41 0 100 6.7 20.8 14.2 105.2 66.6 48.1 6.8 12.5 20.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 63 37 0 100 4.6 17.7 9.5 99.2 65.5 40.4 4.6 9.9 18.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 68 32 0 100 3.9 14.1 9.1 90.2 63.0 40.0 4.4 9.0 15.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 62 38 0 100 4.0 13.1 9.2 90.8 63.0 40.2 4.2 8.4 14.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 62 38 0 100 4.5 16.6 11.0 94.1 63.4 40.5 4.4 9.7 18.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 64 36 0 100 4.6 15.9 9.7 92.2 64.3 40.7 4.9 9.8 16.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 57 43 0 100 4.4 15.5 10.0 113.3 69.9 47.5 4.4 8.2 13.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 70 30 0 100 3.8 15.8 9.2 89.8 63.1 39.6 4.4 9.6 17.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 66 34 0 100 3.0 12.7 11.3 111.5 69.8 42.3 3.3 6.5 11.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 61 39 0 100 8.0 25.2 13.3 100.0 65.0 45.6 8.4 15.7 26.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 71 29 0 100 3.5 12.8 9.0 89.8 63.2 38.7 4.3 8.4 14.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------