***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 20.08.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 24.08.2020.-30.08.2020. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 85 15 0 100 24.8 24.1 25.5 -3.0 13.9 17.5 26.1 27.4 28.6 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 87 13 0 100 24.3 23.4 25.5 -3.3 12.4 15.7 25.7 27.0 28.3 30 Becej 27400G00 87 13 0 100 24.5 23.7 25.5 -3.4 12.9 16.0 25.8 27.2 28.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 81 19 0 100 18.6 18.5 23.2 -2.2 19.9 23.3 19.6 20.9 22.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 87 13 0 100 25.4 24.4 24.0 -3.3 12.0 15.6 26.7 28.1 29.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 78 22 0 100 24.9 24.9 22.8 -2.1 21.7 24.6 25.8 27.1 28.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 85 15 0 100 24.2 23.4 25.4 -3.0 13.6 17.2 25.4 26.7 28.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 87 13 0 100 14.0 13.2 22.1 -3.3 12.7 15.9 15.2 16.4 17.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 87 13 0 100 24.8 23.9 24.8 -3.3 12.6 16.1 26.1 27.4 28.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 86 14 0 100 24.8 24.1 22.8 -3.2 13.9 17.3 26.1 27.4 28.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 89 11 0 100 25.0 23.8 24.3 -3.7 10.5 14.0 26.4 27.8 29.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 89 11 0 100 24.5 23.5 23.4 -3.5 11.3 14.6 25.9 27.2 28.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 92 8 0 100 25.4 24.1 24.1 -3.6 9.4 13.1 26.9 28.3 29.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 87 13 0 100 24.1 23.6 24.4 -3.1 15.9 18.8 25.5 27.0 28.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 82 18 0 100 25.9 26.0 26.5 -2.2 21.4 24.3 27.0 28.2 29.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 89 11 0 100 26.0 25.2 24.2 -3.3 12.4 16.2 27.5 28.9 30.2 30 Nis 06700G01 86 14 0 100 23.7 22.9 25.1 -3.0 13.4 16.9 25.0 26.3 27.6 30 Palic 37000G16 84 16 0 100 23.8 23.1 21.9 -3.2 14.4 17.7 25.0 26.4 27.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 87 13 0 100 24.1 23.4 25.6 -3.3 13.4 16.5 25.4 26.8 28.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 85 15 0 100 20.1 19.4 20.3 -3.0 14.3 17.6 21.3 22.6 23.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 84 16 0 100 24.8 23.9 25.5 -3.1 13.5 17.2 26.0 27.4 28.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 83 17 0 100 24.2 23.7 25.5 -2.7 15.7 19.3 25.4 26.8 28.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 86 14 0 100 24.3 23.8 25.8 -3.2 15.5 18.4 25.6 26.9 28.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 85 15 0 100 24.1 23.5 24.3 -3.2 14.6 17.8 25.4 26.8 28.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 84 16 0 100 24.8 24.0 24.5 -3.0 13.4 17.1 26.1 27.5 28.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 89 11 0 100 25.3 24.6 23.4 -3.1 12.8 16.0 26.6 27.9 29.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 84 16 0 100 24.5 23.8 25.0 -2.8 14.3 17.9 25.7 27.0 28.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 81 19 0 100 25.9 26.0 24.8 -2.1 22.0 25.2 27.0 28.4 29.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 84 16 0 100 19.5 18.6 21.2 -3.3 13.3 16.5 20.7 22.1 23.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 87 13 0 100 24.3 23.5 25.5 -3.2 13.0 16.1 25.6 27.0 28.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------