***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 18.08.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 12.09.2016.-18.09.2016. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 59 41 0 100 21.9 22.7 23.4 -1.3 35.0 38.0 22.5 24.1 25.6 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 53 47 0 100 22.1 22.8 23.5 -1.2 36.5 39.0 22.5 24.0 25.5 30 Becej 27400G00 52 48 0 100 22.5 23.2 23.8 -1.1 36.9 39.3 22.8 24.3 25.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 52 48 0 100 15.6 16.6 21.9 -0.9 39.4 41.3 15.9 17.6 19.2 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 51 49 0 100 23.2 23.9 22.2 -1.1 37.6 39.6 23.4 25.0 26.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 79 21 100 24.7 23.5 20.5 -0.6 43.5 44.4 22.4 24.1 25.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 53 47 0 100 21.9 22.5 23.5 -1.2 36.2 38.9 22.2 23.7 25.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 76 24 100 14.2 12.8 20.7 -0.8 40.8 42.1 12.1 13.5 14.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 55 45 0 100 22.7 23.5 22.3 -1.1 37.4 39.4 23.1 24.6 26.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 52 48 0 100 22.6 23.4 21.2 -1.0 38.9 40.7 22.9 24.4 25.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 76 24 100 25.5 24.0 22.1 -0.9 39.8 41.3 23.4 24.8 26.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 76 24 100 24.9 23.4 21.9 -0.8 41.0 42.1 22.6 24.2 25.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 78 22 100 25.9 24.4 21.3 -0.9 40.4 42.0 23.6 25.3 26.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 52 48 0 100 22.4 23.1 21.8 -1.2 37.3 39.6 22.7 24.2 25.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 52 48 0 100 23.4 24.5 23.1 -0.6 42.7 44.0 23.6 25.1 26.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 78 22 100 26.3 24.8 21.9 -0.8 40.8 42.2 24.1 25.7 27.2 30 Nis 06700G01 0 76 24 100 23.7 22.0 23.4 -1.0 38.1 40.4 21.5 23.1 24.5 30 Palic 37000G16 0 76 24 100 24.2 22.5 20.5 -1.1 38.8 40.9 22.0 23.5 24.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 54 46 0 100 22.0 22.7 23.7 -1.1 37.5 39.7 22.3 23.8 25.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 78 22 100 20.2 19.0 18.5 -0.7 42.0 43.3 18.2 19.6 21.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 57 43 0 100 22.7 23.4 23.1 -1.2 36.0 38.5 23.1 24.6 26.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 51 49 0 100 21.9 22.6 23.3 -1.1 38.0 40.2 22.1 23.7 25.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 54 46 0 100 22.1 23.0 23.7 -1.0 39.2 41.1 22.5 24.0 25.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 53 47 0 100 22.3 23.1 22.0 -1.1 38.3 40.5 22.6 24.1 25.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 58 42 0 100 22.2 23.0 21.9 -1.2 35.7 38.6 22.7 24.3 25.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 78 22 100 25.6 24.4 21.8 -0.5 43.9 44.7 23.4 25.0 26.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 56 44 0 100 22.2 22.8 22.6 -1.2 35.8 38.7 22.6 24.1 25.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 51 49 0 100 23.5 24.5 22.4 -0.7 41.2 42.7 23.8 25.3 26.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 77 23 100 19.6 18.1 19.7 -1.0 39.1 41.2 17.5 19.0 20.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 55 45 0 100 22.0 22.6 23.5 -1.3 35.6 38.3 22.3 23.9 25.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------