***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 16.08.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 20.08.2012.-26.08.2012. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 98 2 0 100 9999.0 0.0 0.3 3.4 7.1 5.1 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 98 2 0 100 1.3 0.5 0.6 5.8 7.2 6.2 3.3 6.4 10.6 30 Becej 27400G00 99 1 0 100 0.9 0.2 0.4 4.0 6.7 5.1 3.0 6.0 10.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 100 0 0 100 0.7 0.1 0.3 2.8 5.7 4.2 2.7 6.1 11.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 100 0 0 100 0.6 0.1 0.2 2.3 4.7 3.5 1.9 4.0 7.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 100 0 0 100 0.9 0.2 0.2 2.3 4.2 3.3 2.8 5.6 9.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 98 2 0 100 0.7 0.1 0.5 5.1 7.4 6.2 2.8 6.8 13.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 100 0 0 100 1.2 0.2 0.3 2.1 4.1 3.3 4.2 9.2 16.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 100 0 0 100 0.5 0.1 0.3 2.3 4.1 3.2 2.2 5.4 10.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 100 0 0 100 1.1 0.2 0.3 2.2 4.1 3.2 3.0 5.8 9.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 100 0 0 100 0.7 0.1 0.2 2.0 4.2 3.1 2.3 5.0 8.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 100 0 0 100 0.7 0.1 0.2 1.8 3.7 2.9 2.1 4.3 7.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 100 0 0 100 0.8 0.1 0.2 1.7 3.9 2.8 2.4 4.5 7.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 99 1 0 100 1.4 0.1 0.4 3.0 4.1 3.3 4.0 8.8 15.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 100 0 0 100 0.4 0.1 0.2 2.7 4.9 3.7 1.6 3.5 6.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 100 0 0 100 0.6 0.0 0.2 2.0 3.6 2.8 2.0 4.4 8.0 30 Nis 06700G01 94 6 0 100 2.0 0.9 0.8 8.4 10.4 8.6 4.5 8.3 13.6 30 Palic 37000G16 100 0 0 100 0.8 0.1 0.3 2.2 3.1 2.7 3.3 7.3 13.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 98 2 0 100 1.3 0.3 0.6 5.6 7.2 5.9 3.7 7.4 12.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 100 0 0 100 0.9 0.1 0.4 2.3 3.2 2.9 3.4 7.4 13.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 99 1 0 100 0.6 0.1 0.3 2.8 5.0 3.7 2.2 5.2 10.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 93 7 0 100 2.4 1.2 0.9 9.3 11.3 8.9 5.1 9.7 16.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 98 2 0 100 1.1 0.3 0.5 4.7 7.2 5.3 3.2 6.5 11.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 100 0 0 100 1.0 0.1 0.4 2.7 3.6 3.1 3.1 6.2 10.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 100 0 0 100 0.7 0.1 0.3 2.5 4.5 3.5 2.3 4.8 8.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 100 0 0 100 0.8 0.2 0.2 1.9 5.9 4.1 2.5 4.9 8.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 99 1 0 100 1.2 0.2 0.3 2.8 5.2 4.1 3.5 7.1 12.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 100 0 0 100 0.6 0.1 0.2 2.6 5.1 3.8 2.1 4.6 8.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 100 0 0 100 1.0 0.1 0.3 2.1 2.9 2.6 3.7 8.2 15.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 98 2 0 100 0.9 0.3 0.5 4.9 7.6 6.2 2.4 4.8 8.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------