***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 15.08.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 26.08.2013.-01.09.2013. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 64 36 0 100 9999.0 10.2 3.9 51.1 45.3 30.8 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 68 32 0 100 3.9 10.8 5.8 73.0 54.7 35.2 4.6 9.2 15.9 30 Becej 27400G00 65 35 0 100 4.2 9.7 4.7 62.9 49.1 31.6 4.5 10.0 18.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 73 27 0 100 3.9 9.8 4.4 54.5 48.5 28.2 4.9 10.4 18.3 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 72 28 0 100 4.3 10.8 4.8 58.9 49.8 29.5 5.3 11.1 19.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 64 36 0 100 4.2 11.8 8.4 77.6 58.4 36.8 4.5 8.9 15.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 70 30 0 100 2.8 7.0 5.6 68.7 51.8 34.8 3.4 6.5 11.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 65 35 0 100 8.0 18.5 6.3 70.8 53.4 35.3 8.9 16.5 27.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 78 22 0 100 4.6 11.1 4.6 55.7 47.2 26.4 6.5 12.1 19.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 69 31 0 100 5.6 12.7 5.8 63.0 49.6 30.8 6.6 12.7 21.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 70 30 0 100 4.8 10.4 4.3 60.0 49.8 31.2 5.7 10.6 17.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 66 34 0 100 3.6 9.6 5.1 72.5 54.5 34.2 4.0 8.2 14.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 69 31 0 100 3.8 12.3 6.6 78.8 57.9 34.4 4.4 9.2 16.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 63 37 0 100 5.5 16.4 8.6 84.5 57.8 35.2 5.9 12.2 22.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 78 22 0 100 1.3 4.1 4.0 54.8 49.8 29.4 1.8 4.1 7.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 68 32 0 100 3.8 10.3 5.3 65.6 52.8 32.7 4.2 9.1 16.9 30 Nis 06700G01 68 32 0 100 4.8 11.3 6.1 72.9 55.3 36.5 5.7 9.8 15.1 30 Palic 37000G16 67 33 0 100 4.7 11.1 8.2 74.8 53.5 35.2 5.4 10.0 16.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 68 32 0 100 3.9 10.3 6.0 76.3 56.0 35.2 4.5 8.6 14.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 61 39 0 100 8.0 16.8 10.3 82.8 57.0 39.3 8.8 14.1 20.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 70 30 0 100 4.0 7.9 3.7 49.7 44.4 25.3 4.9 9.6 16.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 64 36 0 100 5.2 12.4 6.5 77.9 57.0 38.9 5.7 10.1 15.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 68 32 0 100 4.2 12.0 6.3 77.7 55.6 33.3 4.7 9.8 17.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 65 35 0 100 5.9 14.4 7.1 72.7 52.7 33.4 6.3 13.1 23.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 69 31 0 100 3.5 8.5 4.8 54.6 48.1 30.7 3.9 9.3 17.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 66 34 0 100 3.5 11.8 6.0 89.8 62.2 36.6 3.9 7.7 13.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 66 34 0 100 4.1 8.5 4.9 54.5 47.3 32.6 4.3 9.5 17.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 71 29 0 100 2.7 6.9 4.7 59.4 51.5 31.8 3.3 6.6 11.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 65 35 0 100 8.1 19.8 9.6 80.5 55.8 36.9 9.1 16.6 27.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 67 33 0 100 4.0 9.1 5.4 68.6 52.0 33.9 4.6 8.5 14.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------